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Douglas Trading System Year End Summary - Last Post

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#1 Douglas



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Posted 30 December 2017 - 04:55 PM

As you are probably tired of seeing, I have been posting every single trade in advance for my volatility based trading system this year using RYDHX a DJIA fund.  I decided to post them since surely a year ending in "7" after this enormous run would see tremendous volatility making the system shine.  I picked the worst possible year in more than 20 for a system dependent on volatility!  The system only gained 16% for the year badly trailing buy and hold which gained a stellar 24% for RYDHX. 


The risk windows I noted faired a bit better although most of the down turns which began in a risk window tended to be shallow and brief.  About 75% of the signals caught turns or acceleration events of some degree and about 25% of the signals were complete duds. The next risk window the system has identified stretches across the whole of next week which is very unusual. It might explain why some folks were trying to get a jump on next week's swings by selling at the close this past Friday. 


The astro guru Norm Winski has written that he believes that the historic decennial stock market cycle shifted at the turn of the century such that years ending in "8" have taken the high volatility crown away from the "7" years, so just maybe my system will fare better this coming year. 


This is my last regular post regarding this system. 






#2 ryanoo



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Posted 30 December 2017 - 06:01 PM

I always looked forward to reading your posts about what your system predicts.  They were a sort of calming force to me in this rather savage era.  I would like to thank you for posting your system predictions thus far and hope you change your mind and start posting again soon.  Have a happy new year and very gainful 2018!  Ryan.

#3 Douglas



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Posted 31 December 2017 - 03:09 AM

Thanks for the kind words, Ryan.  I will continue to post periodically, but I'm going back to work in January to help pay for my vices, so I won't have enough idle time in the new year to commit to posting every single system twist and turn.  I hope you have a profitable 2018.






    Mark S. Young

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Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:18 AM

We appreciate what you shared. And yes, you picked a helluva year for it! But I would have to say that your system should never be compared to the market. It's not really correlated to the stock market (except tangentially). It should only, really, be evaluated against itself, on the basis of net returns and the volatility of such.


FWIW, I was working on a VIX based system and dropped it. Mine was too unpredictable. 



Mark S Young
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