10 replies to this topic

[CLK]

This is just a short the VIX trade. Must be a lot of targeted manipulation. The VIX is down 27% on a .5% up market.

SPX should be up at least 2% on that.

[da_cheif]

>SPX should be up at least 2% on that.<    have patience ...the day is young

[tommyt]

Not really, it was expo on the open for VIX options, and they cleaned out all of the calls that were >21, which was a lot. Market has 2 great reference points to key off of, the SPX 50d 2720 and the 200d low at 2530. Currently working on a test of the 50d and the high a few days ago there.

 

http://stockcharts.c...id=p95061264868

Edited by tommyt, 14 February 2018 - 12:35 PM.

[redfoliage2]

My guess is that they will bring VIX down below 15 before the week ends.

[CLK]

This was a tough week for me, everything was great until the turn last Friday. I didn't cover and 

the falling volatility premium along with too much hedging resulted in a big loss. It wasn't too bad when I was

hedging with ITM calls, but I ran low on money and forced to go to ATM or OTM. The spreads helped until 

the turn.

 

No system is worth anything if it's not traded. I can't outguess the market on a consistent basis, best I can do is 

just follow it and take my drawdowns at the turns.

 

Some cheap puts at the top was ok, but the main position needs to be about $10-$15 ITM to take the VIX and theta

out of the premium. The main reason I trade options is being able to avoid the three day settlement, and the extra leverage too,

but everything is reset the next day.

 

The SPX 10 point system had a few places where the hourly turn jumped 2-3 bricks, but taking all the drawdowns at the turns it still 

netted around 410 points. Yes, these are 20+ point drawdowns at the turns but you cannot trade this type of system with small stops.

Also trading at or out of the money, a 20-30 point move will be a 75% loss on the option, but on a $15 contract only 20%, if the loss happens as soon as you put the trade on.

 

So, 7.5 points in low VIX conditions and 10 points otherwise.  The move from Friday was clean and didn't need to be second guessed at all.

 

Edited by CLK, 16 February 2018 - 06:45 PM.

[CLK]

I'll be looking for a turn on the 10 point system, it's possible the 5th wave of A or 1 was the longest wave, we did have the small 

wave 1 right off the top.

 

 

Edited by CLK, 17 February 2018 - 12:25 PM.

[CLK]

Looks like a H&S top. Likely path into Tuesday.

 

[CLK]

Closed partial short from last week, left 280 calls on. Not comfortable shorting until the turn.

[CLK]

I don't like what they did here, printed it right at 11am was back and forth and only $.05 in the money, this could

be a whipsaw. 

[CLK]

Shorts have a negative against them on the day, INDU is leading to the downside. I need to see a more convincing 

hourly close below 2720.