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New HIghs before next leg down


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:22 AM

Looking at the daily & weekly charts, in the relatively calm weekend environment, it does appear to me that this is past the stage of BOUNCE and is now an UPTREND. After all that volatility (media's euphemism for markets going down) S&P is only about 5% from the record highs. 

 

With FED's Jerome Powell to speak this week (bullish because he has to and will toe the Trump line), with strong upward momentum, and with end-of-month buying, the markets can and should make new highs during the next week. 

But, after that, it's back to reality: rising interest rates (higher bond yields), Trump brainless "strategy" of trying to stimulate an economy at almost full throttle with more debt, and REALITY. 

 

Selfishly, I yearn for this great day-trading environment to continue (down or up), very low volatility, again, and more opportunities to buy QQQ and SPY options at VIX < 12. So, bring on the rally, let's make record highs.

S&P 2730/35 and 2700/2690 are key support levels, 



#2 opinionated

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Posted 25 February 2018 - 01:20 PM

2785-2820  next 10 days,  probably sooner then a rolling over.

 

Major Event mid March...  Testing previous lows.

 

Huge Gold Move about to begin, climaxing in April near 1475

 

Ok,...  Let the Laughs begin.

 

I went in Thursday before the close, Long MU 47c.... Long TRIP,  Long TSLA and long GDX short term an building a leap position.  All positions as of fridays closer were up an average of 100%



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2018 - 04:06 PM

Great trades.

AMZN could hit 1600 this week as the FANGS get back on the bull train.

 

I focused on S&P daytrading last week and bought a measly 4 QQQ June 172 puts on Friday mainly because, as is the case with most deep out of the money options, they were thinly traded; also, my limit bids were too low. 

I am looking forward to building a larger QQQ put position but will wait until Wednesday or Thursday, unless there are big moves earlier in the week.  

 

Unless a major geopolitical or US political even, I am looking for a big UP week. 

FED Chair Powell will not disappoint the bulls. 

 

"The entire financial world will be watching new Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell like a hawk this week when he testifies in Congress, but Powell himself will be watching the Fed’s preferred inflation measure for signs of trouble.

Powell heads to Capitol Hill on Tuesday for the first of two rounds of questions with U.S. lawmakers. And investors really just want to know one thing: Is the Fed prepared to raise interest rates four times in 2018 instead of three as the central bank has signaled.

Also Read: Fed on track for 3 rate hikes in 2018, but 4? No sign in report to Congress

Don’t expect a cautious Powell, in his first real public test as chairman, to drop any obvious clues.

“We expect Mr. Powell to stick closely to the pre-existing monetary policy script established by [former Chairwoman] Janet Yellen, but markets are going to be hyper-sensitive to his tone and to any deviations from what has been said before, no matter how small,” said economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc.

In other words, if Powell lets down his guard, offers a rosier-than-expected view of the U.S. economy, or sounds worried about inflation, investors will surely take note and react accordingly.

 

The reaction since late January has been a stock-market SPX, +1.60%  selloff. Equity investors are worried the Fed will raise interest rates aggressively, siphoning more money from stocks and into bonds.

Bond investors are also jittery, though. The Fed would only speed up rate increases if inflation accelerated, an outcome that would reduce the value of existing assets with lower yields.

Enter the PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Or officially, the personal consumption expenditure index. The January report will be issued Thursday.

Except for a few brief flareups, the PCE has lingered well below 2% since 2009 — a remarkable stretch of low inflation."

https://www.marketwa...k-on-2018-02-23



#4 K Wave

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 11:34 AM

AAPL gave a fantastic warning before last leg down.

 

I think this time around it will be AMZN. As long as AMZN holds the 1500 breakout, then OK to stay long.

But if it turns out to be breakout/fakeout over 1500 later today or tomorrow, then next sharp wave down could be imminent....

 

In any event, the big moves are making trading great again!



#5 K Wave

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 11:35 AM

And.....Gartman got stopped out of his short today....



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 12:48 PM

But.....

the GARTMAN stopped-out event might be interpreted in a contrarian manner? 

i.e. if the perma short is stopped out the market will decline?  THE GARTMAN PUT?

 

"...There had been much speculation in recent days whether the only thing that matters for markets - Dennis Gartman's short position - which he put on recently near the market lows and may have been largely responsible for the now traditional algo response to fade any reco from Gartman, had been stopped out as Gartman warned he was about to do on several last week occasions.

This morning, just a few days after Gartman's "retirement" account blew up following his investment in crypto fraud Riot Blockchain, we can confirm that as of this morning it is once again safe to short stocks: Gartman has been officially stopped out. To wit:

STOCKS HAVE GONE GLOBALLY PARABOLIC TO THE UPSIDE and clearly… at least for the moment… we have been wrong in being short of equities, for there comes a time  when the action of the market tells us that we have to admit the error of our ways. P/e multiples may be extended; Price/book value ratios may be egregiously extended; margin usage may be egregiously extended; the price of equities relative to commodity prices may be egregiously extended; the public’s participation may be egregiously extended; the fact that volume expands as markets weaken and that volume contracts as markets rally may be egregiously “extended,” but these facts make no difference for prices are higher… prices have been higher… and prices may move higher still.  We may have been right on the bond market for several “units” and we might have been right on gold for a unit or two, and we might have been right on the grains, but we shall be measured most publically by our having been wrong regarding equities in global terms over the course of the past two and one half weeks.

What we shall not do at this point is turn suddenly bullish of equities for that would almost certainly only serve to cause us losses yet again. After 40+ years of being involved in the capital markets we’ve learned few lessons that have truly “stuck” with us; adding to losing trades is one lesson we want to learn yet again and “reversing” one’s position too swiftly after being rather publically wrong is another.

Clearly we have been wrong; clearly going to the sidelines is the proper course of action and clearly paying heed to what is going on in other markets where we have been right is the  better course of action. We shall do precisely that.

And this:

Short one Unit of Global Equities: Wednesday, February 14th we sold US, Japanese and European shares, using our International Index as our “gauge” with the Index at 11,896. We sold one unit in total, risking 3% from our initiation point on the trade… or to 12,253… and we are wrong. We have had gold right; we have rather clearly had the bonds right; but of the equities we have clearly been wrong of and since our “stop” has been elected we have no choice but to accept the loss… which is approximately 3.4%...and run to the sidelines upon receipt of this commentary, living to fight another day

Finally, for those wondering what prompted the dramatic squeeze higher in Treasurys on Friday, read on:

We were, until Friday, aggressively short of the US bond market but with the commercial hedgers aggressively long and with the “small traders” rather aggressively short we thought it wise to go to the sidelines, sizeable profits in hand, with the intention of selling the rally in a week or two or three?

You know what to do.