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Bifurcation point - part 2


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#11 ryanoo

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 05:55 PM

hanging man

If (5) happens, it will be blamed to Gary Cohn resigning.

 

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#12 NAV

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 08:52 PM

Looks like a big gap down tomorrow. Some things cannot be resolved in the day session. The only way to get the incessant dip buyers is to catch them off guard !. I am only glad i did not have a long position.

 

If the gap holds, then it appears the bifurcation is resolved. I will be shorting this market tomorrow.


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#13 saltlake

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 09:05 PM

Would if we had up tomorrow? Probably go long huh?

#14 saltlake

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Posted 06 March 2018 - 09:15 PM

Had=gap

#15 NAV

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 12:41 AM

Would if we had up tomorrow? Probably go long huh?

Look, it's very simple. When we are near a bifurcation point or a compression, it could go either way. Having a bias that it would go a certain way will only cause you to lose the trade, if it goes the other way. The idea is to play the breakout and see if the move sustains. If it reverses back towards the bifurcation point, you tighten your trailing stop and manage the trade. If it sustains, you hang on to the trade. 

 

SPX 2713 is the magnet which has been pulling the market towards it. 4 attempts to breakout above 2730 failed today. Now that we have a 30 point gap-down does not mean anything. We could reverse back towards 2713 again after the gap -down. What i need to see tomorrow is a gap down and go, in which case i won't mind chasing the market down.


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#16 CLK

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 08:17 AM

Most likely a gap fill or sideways all day then another gap down tomorrow. I give gap and go about 10% chance.



#17 CLK

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 09:37 AM

That's all for the bounce, enjoy the chop the rest of the day.



#18 NAV

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:00 AM

Back to the bifurcation point at 2713. No follow thru on either side. I am waiting patiently.


Edited by NAV, 07 March 2018 - 10:00 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#19 Harapa

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:37 AM

A move >2715 is an "high probability event"

will lead to 2800...if