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Daytraders Intraday Time and Cycles 3/7


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#11 Rocketman

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:35 AM

Daytraders Update 3/7
 
5%2Bmin%2Bspx.gif
 
We gapped lower to a 9.30 CIT Low and saw a 10.30 1st hour High so far.
 
Be aware, after the midday High, we should have another sharp decline into 2.05-2.10 Eastern double Time CITs.
 
 
Watch the Mebob for intraday Buy and Sell clues:
 
Intraday Mebob Buy above 2713.75 /ES (March Emini SP)
 
Intraday Mebob Sell below 2708.75 /ES (March Emini SP)



Mebob Buy and Sell Rules below:

From my friend Rob Falk, aka Mebob himself:

The Mebob trade has been described incorrectly by many people. Probably the most misunderstood part of it has to do with the CLOSE on the buy and sell signal. The buy or sell signals are only confirmed by the CLOSING PRICE of the following 5 minute bars and NOT the high or low. The basic concept as I originally presented it to Avid is as follows.

1. The MEBOB bar is a five minute bar that starts at 9:05 CT and ends at 9:10 Central time.

2. If you draw a horizontal line on your chart from the high and low of that bar you have the key points for the day.

3. If you CLOSE above the high of the Mebob on any subsequent 5 minute bar you buy.

4. If you CLOSE below the low of the Mebob you sell.

The most asked question is, "where is the stop loss". That is pretty obvious by the rules but some days the Mebob bar is
quite big and for some to take a 8-10 point loss is more than they want to accept. My general answer is to use a 5.25 trailing stop on your entry. I have found over the years that if the market reverses more than 5 points from the buy or sell signal it will keep going.

Another point that needs to be considered to increase your probability of success is the technicals at the time. In the case of the
attached example from 6-12, the RSI was at a very high level and should have produced a 100% potential for a successful trade. On the other hand if the RSI had been under 30 and I got a sell signal, I would have been concerned that the potential for entering the trade was not good and would probably pass for the day. No reason to trade every day and if the technical are against you, why fight it. When Mebob works as it did on Thursday its a very profitable short term trade with minimum risk. You have your entry point and stop loss point established and then its just a matter of deciding how long you stay in. Although many people with no technical skill can make money by just using a reasonably stop on the trade and closing it at the end of the day. You will see on the
attached example, the market reversed from an RSI reading under
30 and provided a 15 point gain on the trade. It was also the close
from the previous day and an important low. No reason to expect much
more out of a day trade and time to take the profit.

I hope this clears up the Mebob trade for you. Like any trade it works best in a trending market. The concept also works in markets beyond the S & P.

Bob
 
 
 
Don't miss our free forecasts and Updates at:
Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com


#12 Rocketman

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:41 AM

Saltlake, the Time CITs are often exact or at times +/-5-10 min.

 

The intraday cycle times, eg 12.20 cycle High and 2.00 pm Eastern cycle Low are +/- 30 min, but when combined with the time CITs above, they become more exact.


Edited by Rocketman, 07 March 2018 - 10:43 AM.


#13 saltlake

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:52 AM

Cool thanks

#14 saltlake

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:54 AM

Also whats a double time CIT?

#15 Rocketman

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 10:58 AM

That is when we have 2 time CITs hitting around the same time, ie 2.05 and 2.10 pm Eastern, combined that with the 2.00 cycle Low of the intraday cycle, then you can see how we can get enough confluence to be "confident" that a Low will occur at that time.



#16 saltlake

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 11:06 AM

Ok Awesome man, Thanks

#17 Rocketman

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 12:08 PM

12.10 pm Update: 

 

5%2Bmin%2Bspx.gif

 

We saw an early and lower midday 11.40 High, suggesting weakness into 2.00 pm Low is likely, which could then be the Low of Day.
 

 

We still have an 80% chance to see the last hour High to be the High of day, we'll see if that can happen.


#18 saltlake

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 12:27 PM

That would be a hell of trade if that happens, Im watching , thanks for the update

#19 saltlake

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 02:20 PM

Low came early ?

#20 Rocketman

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 02:31 PM

The intraday cycle is a little out of sync, the 2.00 pm cycle Low arrived at the 1.20L.

 

The 2.05-2.10 pm Time CIT was the 2.05 higher Low.


Edited by Rocketman, 07 March 2018 - 02:37 PM.