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New Bull Market highs if....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2018 - 03:06 PM

they are really serious about cutting spending in that obscene and unnecessary Bill that was passed recently. 

There is no need to spend recklessly to achieve a red-hot economy!  The economy can hum along at 2 to 3% GDP for years with no recession, no need for higher interest rates (in addition to two or three more 1/4 % hikes in 2018/19), almost full employment (defined by unemployment rate below 5%), and a Bull market chugging along rather than irrational exuberance.

 

The conservative WSJ carried this:

 

logo-WSJ.png Best of the Web At Last, a Backlash against Federal Spending

GOP lawmakers get a do-over on their disastrous budget deal.

“Trump Is Plotting a Diabolical Budget Double-Cross,” reads the headline on an uplifting story in The Nation this week. The political left is getting nervous because a virtuous and lawful reduction in federal spending is suddenly looking much more likely. This column is told that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R., Wisc.) is now on board.

Specifically, Mr. Ryan likes the idea of paring back the huge spending hikes in the recently enacted budget bill. While the budget required 60 votes in the Senate and therefore Democratic support, a “rescission” bill to repeal the spending increases needs only a simple majority in each house. The plan was advanced last week in a column by the Journal’s Kimberley A. Strassel:

It’s a chance for Republicans to honor their promises of spending restraint and redeem themselves with a base turned off by the omnibus blowout. It’s an opening for the GOP to highlight the degree to which Democrats used the bill to hold the military hostage to their own domestic boondoggles. And it’s a chance for Mr. Trump to present himself again as an outsider, willing to use unconventional means to change Washington’s spending culture.
It’s called the 1974 Impoundment Act, which allows the president to order the rescission of specific funds, so long as Congress approves those cuts within 45 days.

Now a longtime Washington hand explains in an email why this can happen very quickly:

The Senate being a clubby place, one might think the rescission bill would languish in committee there. But the budget law gives spending cutters super powers. A discharge motion is made automatically in order, and in the Senate it is a privileged motion. (This means it can cut in front of other business.) The motion is limited to one hour of debate—really fast work for the Senate.
But wait, there’s more: in the House, where there are also the Republicans, the Democrats, and the Appropriators (the latter of whom can be counted on to scuttle rescissions if they can get away with it), there are fast-track procedures, too. It takes only one-fifth of the Members of the House to force a floor vote on a rescission bill. When the bill comes to the floor the motion to proceed is “highly privileged” (that is, it takes precedence over all pending business) ...
Getting 50 Republican votes in the Senate will be made easier because they will be forced into an up-or-down vote—not the usual forest of complexity where they can hide in the tall grass. Ditto for House Republican appropriators.

This week a number of media outlets reported that President Trump has been talking about rescission with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.). Mr. Ryan’s support, if paired with an endorsement by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), would make it extremely difficult for appropriators to resist.

GOP elected officials can no longer use the excuse of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) to justify a big spending surge. And very soon Republican voters may suddenly have reason to cheer.

Read today's full column »

 



#2 gannman

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 05:08 AM

john bolton starts monday . that is a wild card that imo makes this market virtually unpredictable 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#3 fib_1618

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 05:35 AM

The conservative WSJ carried this:

 

Thanks for the chuckle.

 

Fib


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#4 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:53 AM

Interesting.

saupload_SP500-2015-2018-1-040418.png



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:54 AM

Also interesting:

saupload_SP500-MarketChart-2-040618.png



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 09:55 AM

Market Art (Abstract)


saupload_SP500-MarketChart-1-040618.png


 



#7 CLK

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 02:45 PM

Moving average crossovers are the exact point that a big countertrend move starts, check

most any chart and time frame.



#8 blustar

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Posted 08 April 2018 - 04:02 PM

I, too, see a strong counter trend move into these dates: April 11, 17 and 25, the last one being a "likely" final top date.  Apr 25 to May 15 = down, same as Mar 13 to Apr 2.

 

Lows should occur on April 13th and around 19th/20th. My planetary arrangement system combined with Gann sees the high probability of a "strong up move" into Apr 11 (2760?).

 

There is a H&S reversal signature that tells me a minimum of 2790 SPX coming.  I'm thinking 2824/25 by Apr 25, then down into May 14/15, which is the next shadow 20 week low off of Dec 29.

 

We could easily see new highs by late mid/lateJune.

 

More volatility ahead into the summer months and then a final high late Summer.  Watch out after that, as much as 24-40% down coming! My hunch is down 24/25% into the fall of 2018 or winter of 2019.

 

New highs by early 2020 followed by the worst bear market since 1929-32.