44 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Watch the SPX 200m at 2608, a few points away from today's low @ 2612

 

Next major resistance is 2648/50 SPX 

[dTraderB]

SPX low yesterday was 2617 and today, so far, is 2612. 

15-minute opening range 2630 H   2611 L

Those are my important ESM levels to day trade, until there is a higher hi or lower lo

[dTraderB]

that looks like a successful test of the SPX 200ma key level

Let's see if it can hold

Market has to take out the high today and then rally towards 2648/50 SPX or else it will resume decline to the 200ma and retest

(2608 SPX). Next major target after that us SPX 2580

[K Wave]

K Wave - I think it was you who mentioned this is a Crash Window. What makes this a Crash Window?

 

 

When markets/stocks have a had a big run, the daily MAs will spread out very wide.

When they finally start to falter, the "crash window" is the big air gap between the 200 MA and the 900 MA. The bigger the air gap, the bigger the potential crash move.

So in 1929, after a topping and a failed swing up, the market broke down from the 200 DAY MA, and crashed all the way to the 900 day MA in a matter of days.

In 1987, the market did the exact same thing.

 

AMZN looks VERY similar to Oct 1987 right now. 1450 is first big pivot. If that goes, it will signify that this last swing high was very likely the failed swing high after the peak.

And from there, things can disintegrate rapidly. AMZN 900 day MA is currently at around $750.

I do not know if AMZN wll go that low, should 1450 fail to hold. But if it does close below 1450, the odds of a bull capitulation move would be very high, and it could get extreme.

 

And by the way, this type of pattern works great on pretty much any time frame. I cant tell you how many times I have traded counter moves to the 1 or  5 min 900 MA after long extended moves on the 1 or 5 min chart that look very similar to a crash setup on daily charts.

Edited by K Wave, 25 April 2018 - 09:36 AM.

[K Wave]

OK...so we have our first dip under 1450 on AMZN.

 

My guess is they will try to get back up there at some point today...and if they fail to take back above, may be time to fasten the chin strap on the crash helmet on that one....

[K Wave]

APPL coming for back kiss of the broken swing low....

 

This area very important to near term future for AAPL....

[Waver]

Thanks K Wave
Interesting

[K Wave]

AMZN with the recovery off the first breach....

 

now we watch closely to see how it acts...next few trading hours could tell us a lot....

[dTraderB]

Yeah, a critical few hours trading today & tomorrow will determine IT direction. 

Still think it will rally today and early tomorrow, then down again

[K Wave]

AAPL trying to roll back over after the back kiss....this could be moment of truth there...