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#1 NAV

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:58 AM

My ST has been in a bullish mode since 5/4. Today's clear breakout above 2683 is a confirmation to me that a trending move to the upside has begun. 

 

ST aside, some notable things in the big picture. Investors Intelligence bull/bear ratio was 5 in January. I posted many times here that it was the worst ratio since 1987. Not many paid attention. Now the same Inv Intel  bull/bear ratio is in the gutter at 2. If you don't get bullish when it gets to 2, with a bullish price action, then you are likely a perma bear. Also the AAII bulls have collapsed. We have a good sentiment backdrop for nice rally for a few weeks. Let's see how it goes. 

 

I could be wrong, but i think it's time to throw away the oscillators and focus on price trends.

 

Good trading !


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#2 tsharp

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:04 PM

Concur... second breakout of a bullish flag that seems to be targeting ~2720, though there are pockets of resistance overhead.

 

SP00_60_5.9.18-2.jpg

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/m67zp1opl/

 

SP00_240_5.9.18.jpg

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/rhmw9rii1/



#3 diogenes227

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:22 PM

My ST has been in a bullish mode since 5/4. Today's clear breakout above 2683 is a confirmation to me that a trending move to the upside has begun. 

 

ST aside, some notable things in the big picture. Investors Intelligence bull/bear ratio was 5 in January. I posted many times here that it was the worst ratio since 1987. Not many paid attention. Now the same Inv Intel  bull/bear ratio is in the gutter at 2. If you don't get bullish when it gets to 2, with a bullish price action, then you are likely a perma bear. Also the AAII bulls have collapsed. We have a good sentiment backdrop for nice rally for a few weeks. Let's see how it goes. 

 

I could be wrong, but i think it's time to throw away the oscillators and focus on price trends.

 

Good trading !

 

Uh, the NYMO/NYSI turned up on 5/4 also, launching the up trend right then and then.

 

Today's "confirmation" might be a good time to cash in some of the gains, put in at least a breakeven stop, and ride the rest of the trend until further notice.

 

On the chart below, a selection of index and sector 3x-leveraged ETFs, the white flag on the lower right is the current profit per $100K in each trade (calculated to also be the percentage gain).  The white flag on the left is the locked-in profit from the last NYMO/NYSI buy and sell signal.

 

Best to trade with the oscillators but definitely not against them.yes.gif

 

Good luck and good trading.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#4 NAV

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:23 PM

Tsharp,

 

The big Kahuna trendline from Jan top is around SPX 2703 today. If we get a daily close above that, then we are looking at much higher targets than 2720. I am thinking 2851 (Jan 2018 gap). First things first - let's break the trendline.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#5 NAV

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:29 PM

 

 

Best to trade with the oscillators but definitely not against them

I am sure you understood what i said. My point was don't try to fade the trend with oscillators when a trending move develops. By all means use the oscillators in the direction of the trend.

 

 

 

Today's "confirmation" might be a good time to cash in some of the gain

 

My thinking is we are just beginning a new swing move today. Big gains are ahead !

 

Back to my cave...


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#6 viccarter

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:35 PM

Nice work as always, NAV.  I have noticed that the Russell 2k has often been the strongest index on the day during the past choppy few weeks.  Yesterday was no exception.  Also, the RUT is so close within striking distance of ATH's, it's hard to get to bear'd up.

 

Best trade of 2018 though, has been XOP.  I have been buying it every 2 weeks in wife's 401K and my IRA since Feb for a multi-month hold and it has done great so far.  Had the thesis in Feb that either oil would pull back hard (which I didn't think it would) or XOP just HAD to start moving up.  Has worked beautifully so far, but short term very overbought.



#7 diogenes227

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:37 PM

 

 

 

Best to trade with the oscillators but definitely not against them

I am sure you understood what i said. My point was don't try to fade the trend with oscillators when a trending move develops. By all means use the oscillators in the direction of the trend.

 

 

 

Today's "confirmation" might be a good time to cash in some of the gain

 

My thinking is we are just beginning a new swing move today. Big gains are ahead !

 

Back to my cave...

 

 

I do not doubt you.  I said "might" since say a third off here with a breakeven in place and the rest of the come-what-may (hopefully the big gains ahead!) will be stress free.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#8 NAV

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:48 PM

More sentiment stuff

 

 

 

the entire fund - all $160 billion of it - is now, reportedly, net short equities.

 

https://www.zerohedg...es-short-stocks


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 ww4321

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:54 PM

Buy now or buy dips if swing trading?



#10 tsharp

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 09:01 AM

SPX continuing to press upward... it seems the overhead DTL would be as good a place as any to rest at a smaller wave-i... time will tell.

 

SP00_60_5.10.18.jpg

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/72vgvpy0p/