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6-day DOW winning streak: looking for pullback or reversal


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 06:48 AM

My VIX system signals a Pullback or reversal today or Monday. 

Most likely, an early rally today, pullback, rally, then end the day down.

 

More  later



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 08:57 AM

Phil also thinks a short S&P trade is in the cards: 

 

"nothing likely to move the market other than Trump's Drug speech later and that's bound to spook that sector so I'd short /ES here (2,725) as we know they have trouble at 2,728 so $150 loss limit but very likely to give us a little run lower (though maybe wait until Bullard to be sure).  

2,725 on /ES is lined up with 24,750 on /YM, 6,975 on /NQ (still a shorting line with tight stops above) and 1,608 on /RTY and same there with a stop over 1,610."



#3 saltlake

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 09:30 AM

Whos Phil ?

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 09:45 AM

Thought I posted this to another forum where "Phil" is known!

 

Hope I am not infringing this forum's rules & policies by sharing this link:

https://www.philstoc...ek-finally-ends



#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 10:29 AM

 

Phil also thinks a short S&P trade is in the cards: 

 

"nothing likely to move the market other than Trump's Drug speech later and that's bound to spook that sector so I'd short /ES here (2,725) as we know they have trouble at 2,728 so $150 loss limit but very likely to give us a little run lower (though maybe wait until Bullard to be sure).  

2,725 on /ES is lined up with 24,750 on /YM, 6,975 on /NQ (still a shorting line with tight stops above) and 1,608 on /RTY and same there with a stop over 1,610."

 

With lower drug prices the earnings for pharmaceutical sector will be negatively affected and I don't see the other way around...........


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 May 2018 - 10:30 AM.


#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 10:42 AM

 

 

Phil also thinks a short S&P trade is in the cards: 

 

"nothing likely to move the market other than Trump's Drug speech later and that's bound to spook that sector so I'd short /ES here (2,725) as we know they have trouble at 2,728 so $150 loss limit but very likely to give us a little run lower (though maybe wait until Bullard to be sure).  

2,725 on /ES is lined up with 24,750 on /YM, 6,975 on /NQ (still a shorting line with tight stops above) and 1,608 on /RTY and same there with a stop over 1,610."

 

With lower drug prices the earnings for pharmaceutical sector will be negatively affected and I don't see the other way around.  There will be a pullback/reversal next week as nothing has changed in the current environment for the market, such as the potential trade war, the Fed tightening and raising, the mid-term.  This is just a technical bounce that is about done..............



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 11:17 AM

So, where are we now at lunch hour? 

UP, now market is going down, next is a rally attempt that can make new daily highs, and then, most likely, decline into the end of session & week. 



#8 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 11:35 AM

Although short term bearish, my Medium Term charts are bullish...  A small sell off is likely for a couple days before it is back to the races on going higher...   Trade it as you will....



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 01:12 PM

My outlook is almost the same: down to about SPX 2625, could spike lower, then up again to the recent swing high 2730, possibly 2750, with lower range, lower volatility and choppy trade until September. 

However, I will not be surprised with markets rallying to near the record highs and also breaking the 2018 low to fall to as low as SPX 2460.

 

Unless there are major geopolitical events, I expect markets to assimilate the new higher yield environment and make new highs in 2019 before the next bear market begins.



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 01:27 PM

My outlook is almost the same: down to about SPX 2625, could spike lower, then up again to the recent swing high 2730, possibly 2750, with lower range, lower volatility and choppy trade until September. 

However, I will not be surprised with markets rallying to near the record highs and also breaking the 2018 low to fall to as low as SPX 2460.

 

Unless there are major geopolitical events, I expect markets to assimilate the new higher yield environment and make new highs in 2019 before the next bear market begins.

The market will remain range-bound for a while, and that's what the current environment allows.  However, if the potential trade war gets into real play (will know within two months) or the 10 yr rate stays above 3% I'd look for SPX to go to 2450............


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 May 2018 - 01:36 PM.