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Good News, Bad News, Good News!


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 02 June 2018 - 05:56 PM

Very low (stated) unemployment is good news. Better news is that 2nd Quarter GDP growth is estimated at 4.8%, which is downright hot.

https://www.frbatlan...rch/gdpnow.aspx

 

The bad news is that such may put pressure on the Fed to raise rates, and if they over-do it--and they often do-- it could kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

 

 

The good news is that we are still outside the "danger zone" on capacity utilization (80-85%), so we have a way to go, and, if repatriated cash goes to add efficient capacity, it could allow much more growth without much inflation. Cross your fingers.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU

 

Also, if somehow we start running surpluses, the dollar will surge, I think and we can export some inflation and keep the growth going.

 

Cross your fingers. I'm watching this like a hawk.


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 02 June 2018 - 09:22 PM

Very low (stated) unemployment is good news. Better news is that 2nd Quarter GDP growth is estimated at 4.8%, which is downright hot.

https://www.frbatlan...rch/gdpnow.aspx

 

The bad news is that such may put pressure on the Fed to raise rates, and if they over-do it--and they often do-- it could kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

 

 

The good news is that we are still outside the "danger zone" on capacity utilization (80-85%), so we have a way to go, and, if repatriated cash goes to add efficient capacity, it could allow much more growth without much inflation. Cross your fingers.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU

 

Also, if somehow we start running surpluses, the dollar will surge, I think and we can export some inflation and keep the growth going.

 

Cross your fingers. I'm watching this like a hawk.

u worry 2 much    watch the sky    ....rates will explode with the stock market....



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 02 June 2018 - 09:25 PM

in 1980 when rates exploded along with the stock market     Maryann keller couldnt understand why



#4 colion

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Posted 02 June 2018 - 10:47 PM

There is more good news in one of the most eye-opening employment figures in the latest report comes from the Household Survey which shows a decrease in part-time jobs of 625K and at the same time an increase in full-time jobs of 904K, one of the largest recorded and the largest since 2000. A nice improvement in job quality.



#5 Waver

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Posted 02 June 2018 - 11:54 PM

Year 2000 was also a long term top in the stock market

#6 da_cheif

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Posted 03 June 2018 - 12:03 AM

Year 2000 was also a long term top in the stock market

really?    since 2000 how many years were up years and how many years were down years



#7 Waver

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Posted 03 June 2018 - 03:06 PM

On a net basis I am positive the market will be up, watch the sky.
However why hold thru a 38% or more decline if you are a trader?

#8 da_cheif

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Posted 03 June 2018 - 09:40 PM

On a net basis I am positive the market will be up, watch the sky.
However why hold thru a 38% or more decline if you are a trader?

ur absolutely correct.......