40 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

Basically, outside of the occasional short covering rally (due primary to cycle nestings), there's been nothing really suggesting a bullish outlook for the metals for some time now.

 

Fib

 

 

 

 

 

[CLK]

My trades are NEVER based on some Voodoo chart that millions of retail traders are using to gamble. They are used as a means to track the herd and a place to keep track of my historical data. They are after the fact, but do give clues if one knows how to use the data with other tools.  They have NO predictive power. However, my tools give me the odds for every trade long or short I place.

 

LOL... Thanks for the tip. I would have never known that if if you hadn't pointed it out to me. 

 

 

 

My trades are NEVER based on some Voodoo chart that millions of retail traders are using to gamble. They are used as a means to track the herd and a place to keep track of my historical data. They are after the fact, but do give clues if one knows how to use the data with other tools.  They have NO predictive power. However, my tools give me the odds for every trade long or short I place.

 

LOL... Thanks for the tip. I would have never known that if if you hadn't pointed it out to me. 

 

 

Basing trades on past oscillator setups is a waste of time and money.

CLK,

 

Was that comment for me?  If it was - why should I show you the rest of the tools I use to make/place/take trades. I have a win rate of over 70% and the losers (30%)

I control with Risk Management.

 

For the record: I mainly trade extremes most of the time. The the rest of the time I watch the guessers make guesses on what the market will do next. 

 

 

Start posting real time trades with entry exit and stop and we will see if they are profitable or not.

 

I have found what works and I freely posted it with the board, I have no interest in following oscillator type systems, there are so many

curve fit projections that it's a waste of time, basically by the time you see a reliable pattern develop it will fail the next trade you get

confident enough to take. It's not the percentage of calls that you get right, the 30% wrong can be gap down or up 2% moves while the winners

are 0.25 %. And lots of management stop outs can destroy an account too.

 

Even though I posted my system few people will trade it, the majority think they can predict and will keep trying to do that.

[robo]

 

My trades are NEVER based on some Voodoo chart that millions of retail traders are using to gamble. They are used as a means to track the herd and a place to keep track of my historical data. They are after the fact, but do give clues if one knows how to use the data with other tools.  They have NO predictive power. However, my tools give me the odds for every trade long or short I place.

 

LOL... Thanks for the tip. I would have never known that if if you hadn't pointed it out to me. 

 

 

 

My trades are NEVER based on some Voodoo chart that millions of retail traders are using to gamble. They are used as a means to track the herd and a place to keep track of my historical data. They are after the fact, but do give clues if one knows how to use the data with other tools.  They have NO predictive power. However, my tools give me the odds for every trade long or short I place.

 

LOL... Thanks for the tip. I would have never known that if if you hadn't pointed it out to me. 

 

 

Basing trades on past oscillator setups is a waste of time and money.

CLK,

 

Was that comment for me?  If it was - why should I show you the rest of the tools I use to make/place/take trades. I have a win rate of over 70% and the losers (30%)

I control with Risk Management.

 

For the record: I mainly trade extremes most of the time. The the rest of the time I watch the guessers make guesses on what the market will do next. 

 

 

Start posting real time trades with entry exit and stop and we will see if they are profitable or not.

 

I have found what works and I freely posted it with the board, I have no interest in following oscillator type systems, there are so many

curve fit projections that it's a waste of time, basically by the time you see a reliable pattern develop it will fail the next trade you get

confident enough to take. It's not the percentage of calls that you get right, the 30% wrong can be gap down or up 2% moves while the winners

are 0.25 %. And lots of management stop outs can destroy an account too.

 

Even though I posted my system few people will trade it, the majority think they can predict and will keep trying to do that.

 

I post my real-time trades in a private forum with many other retail traders daily, and I have no desire to post them here.  I'm mainly a VST and ST trader. As for making money I do pretty good.  I do trade MT using VXF and GDXJ only as I pointed out above.

 

Have a nice day...

[robo]

Basically, outside of the occasional short covering rally (due primary to cycle nestings), there's been nothing really suggesting a bullish outlook for the metals for some time now.

 

Fib

 

 

I agree and enjoy looking over your work. However, I trade this sector using a 1 hour chart or less most of the time. As for MT trading I'm buying GDXJ under $33.00ish and have been for sometime now. So we shall see in the months ahead how my trade worked out. I'll continue to add shares until I hit around 10% of my account. I currently have around 2000 shares with a current average share price of $32.50ish. Looking to buy more as we move lower.  

 

Plenty of moves up and down in this sector to trade if one knows how to do it. I use JNUG/NUGT and DUST when I like the setups. I know, it can't be done and make money at it.

 

 

 

[MaryAM]

It may be the forerunner of what I have been saying - we are headed toward hyper deflation and the fed will accelerate it by raising interest rates.   The whole economy is in uncharted territory - there is no recent history to compare it to.   An advanced economy with a fiat currency - yes the last years of the Roman Empire.  A fiat currency that is lasting more than 35 years - yes the last years of the Roman Empire (fiat currency lasted 70 years).  Advanced economy where the fiat currency no longer accepted in trade - last years of the Roman Empire - not happened yet here but I don't think its far off.  

 

Oil and energy inflation seems to be trader manipulated rather than demand related. The world has plenty of oil.  Probably will not become a supply problem for another 500-800 years and by then some other type of energy will emerge on the scene that will replace it entirely - like hydrogen combustion sources.  

 

Real estate inflation since the financial crisis is artificial - fueled by the FED buying mortgage backed securities.   Without that action by the FED - houses would probably be selling at 10% of current prices.  This will collapse as will the associated mortgage debt but since the FED has purchased it - it won't matter - just dies and goes to money heaven - which will destroy the dollar and most debt secured by it.   There is no real counter party risk in any of the secured debt markets - including treasuries - and especially if the dollar is shunned at some point in trade which may occur within the next 10 years (in my opinion).    Stock market prices are fueled by the real estate market, propped up with FED purchases of MBS, and the money has no where to go but into the market.  Artificial again, because the price rise has really nothing to do with increased productivity or profitability (with the exception of Goldman and the boys on Wall Street).  SAMS CLUB and Walmart aren't selling more crap than they did 10 years ago.   

 

Unemployment numbers are crap.   The real unemployment rate which includes all those no longer participating in the labor market is still around 25%.  

 

All of this points to a deflationary re-set and probably a new currency.   It will still be called a dollar - the last three US currencies were called "dollars" but it will require a currency backed by a standard - rather than printed at will.  As it always has throughout history - it will go back to a gold or silver standard.   

[gannman]

the rally in gld from dec 2015 looks impulsive to me

 

and the selloff in gld off of the top is not impulsive it is corrective imo

 

if we can hold the 119 area and then rally nicely that would be good 

 

for the bulls .  my two cents fwiw

[CLK]

Long term gold is bearish.

 

 

[CLK]

I marked where I posted to stay away from gold. The chart was bearish.

 

 

[CLK]

Still buying dips ?  lol

 

https://invst.ly/7ugkn

 

Nearing the end on this run, I have a target of 1242.

 

I would wait for the turn though, I don't expect a big gap up if any at all, just a one brick hourly turn.

What if it went straight to 108 and you covered/bought early ?

 

[CLK]

High odds that was the bottom in gold, target met 1242. Going to be the first gap up in awhile.

I would take profits today and wait to see where Renko goes, if it prints higher go long, new lows back short again.