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Extreme complacency could continue as BULLS cling on


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 06:58 AM

S&P Futures are down but SPX 2760/65 must be broken decisively or else the bull run will continue. 

 

Sure, there is extreme complacency and my VIX & VXX indicators are on BUY status (SPX sell) but the bulls have managed to grind this market higher and every shallow pullback is met with more buying.  

 

SPX 2760/65 is the support zone that must be taken out on a daily close if there is to be any significant reversal of this strong bull rally. 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 06:59 AM

Market Mysteries by NT

Unemployment at 3.8%, earnings growth at 26%, Q2 GDP growth pegged at a solid 4% or so, $NDX and small caps making new all time highs week after week. Markets ignoring all potential bad news (i.e. potential trade wars, political drama, etc) and volatility again crushed with no signs of fear or concern with a […]



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 07:00 AM

http://stockcharts.c...uy-signals.html

 

Historic High on NAAIM Exposure - NDX Scoreboard All Buy Signals
Erin Swenlin |  June 16, 2018 at 02:03 PM

 

 

http://stockcharts.c...uy-signals.html



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 08:57 AM

CLOSED VXX long position. 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 10:15 AM

Looking to buy VXX below 31.40

Ideally, VXX declines below 31 and then I will buy on the way up.



#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 02:50 PM

I look at NAAIM closely. I don't like the exposure index. Take a look at the chart that Erin posted. I don't know what the sell trigger level is, but it sure looks to me like whatever reasonable level you selected, you often would have had to take significant heat and occasionally, you NEVER got your correction.

I prefer to look at the median, in addition to the overall distribution of equity ownership among their advisors.


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#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 06:56 PM

Thanks, Mark

 



#8 da_cheif

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Posted 18 June 2018 - 08:52 PM

I look at NAAIM closely. I don't like the exposure index. Take a look at the chart that Erin posted. I don't know what the sell trigger level is, but it sure looks to me like whatever reasonable level you selected, you often would have had to take significant heat and occasionally, you NEVER got your correction.

I prefer to look at the median, in addition to the overall distribution of equity ownership among their advisors.

clx stuff is vulnerable till next tues.....there are 3 gaps under the mkt  a 700 pt dow decline would get them all filled



#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 19 June 2018 - 05:42 AM

 

I look at NAAIM closely. I don't like the exposure index. Take a look at the chart that Erin posted. I don't know what the sell trigger level is, but it sure looks to me like whatever reasonable level you selected, you often would have had to take significant heat and occasionally, you NEVER got your correction.

I prefer to look at the median, in addition to the overall distribution of equity ownership among their advisors.

clx stuff is vulnerable till next tues.....there are 3 gaps under the mkt  a 700 pt dow decline would get them all filled

 

 

This is interesting.

The WSS Survey had a DEAD even split (48%Bull 48%Bear 4%Neutral). That, historically, has implied weakness into a midweek low.

 

I'll be curious to see how this plays out.

 

M


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