46 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

The Monthly price candlesticks seem to support the next extended trend drop to not start occurring UNTIL December monthly candle starts its creation.....

 

That is possible tradesurfer,  I am not sure about the requirement your seeing on the monthly candle, but I could see us holding

the monthly intraday low of 2600 into Fri ( end of the month).

 

I could also see us collapse tomorrow - what I don't see, or is 'low odds' on my system is a strong swing move up, that is, a move

above 2710 Spx cash before we drop to 2600 area, or at least close todays' gap up. Even lower odds, is an IT low here i.e. end of the decline.

 

Tomorrow should add information to the ST setup, which is a little indeterminate right here. 

[tradesurfer]

Excellent video thank you for posting !!

 

 

quick update and a few charts of interest.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/vxBu7YK1

[EntropyModel]

Thanks tradesurfer I appreciate the feedback.

[EntropyModel]

Range bound market as expected. Quick update on that.

 

Note. on last chart of Dow, there is a mini reverse h&s I didn't mention 

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/3sR1jCUZ

[Waver]

still bearish with today's action?

[EntropyModel]

still bearish with today's action?

 

Hi Waver,

 

Depends on TIMEFRAME - I break it down as four timeframes as follows:

 bull/bear  -> IT (few weeks) - > Swing/Hourly Swing ( 3-5 days) -> Short Term ( 30 min to few hours).

 

My system coming into today as explained in thread and video's -

 Bull/bear - early stage transition to bear
IT - bearish

 Hourly Swing - BUY as explained last video 40second to 1.20min - hourly swing BUY with chance with AM to runup to close

gap above on comp - I did NOT really expect that as said, but setup was on as said.

 ST signal - indeterminate 

 

I actually took invitation to go mountain biking all day not expecting much change -  ha ha, but 'big news' with Powell triggered a barn burner.

I certainly didn't see that coming, that's why it's called 'news' I guess :-)

 

Does that change my signals? I haven't had time to look carefully, but roughly I would say:

bull/bear cycle position - no change ..way too early to tell much, but I lean no, I don't expect this to change.

IT - might change, but too early again to tell on my signal.

Hourly Swing - still buy.

St - triggered for sell tomorrow, meaning, if we get a drop, it likely will be quite big, often period of chop first though.

 

I'll have time tomorrow to look over everything and see if anything changed, and also see tomorrow actions. Every day is a 'new data point' for

the system signals and can change them - though obviously, IT and bull/bear signals take more like a week to change.

 

** FYI - as mentioned before, my trading focus in the ST signal and hourly swing - the IT & bull/bear is for 'context' for those signals.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 28 November 2018 - 10:00 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Emotional Volatility seems very high last few months - every drop is 'start of a crash/end of the world' and every

bounce is 'start of new bull leg' .

 

As i've said previously, I don't think either party will get what it wants, at least in 2018 - highest odds we

remain in the ranges of 2018. Also high odds, we're not finished with the downside, once with current bounce

terminates, likely end of this week/early next.

 

Short Term - into close, tomorrow.

---------------------------------------------

 ST volatility signals are NOT on sell, so high odds we'll chop around up here 2748-2760 until they trigger for sell.

 

Price wise:

>>System will get ST SELL - with drop below Key pivot(KP) 2735  currently ( moves over time).

 

Trading wise - Likely we drop late if at all today, tomorrow likely better odds.

Basically, I expect a choppy zone 2747-2755/60 then a drop - but tomorrow likely offer better  setup.