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Scenario, cycles, analogs SPX


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#1 bigbud

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 05:23 AM

Using cycles of ~3,5 years, ~25 weeks and ~4 weeks

3,5 year cycle topping (top was January?)

25 week cycle ha low around mid August, if bearish it may stretch into Sept or even Oct.

 

If bearish, SPX should not test June highs from here.

DOW hourly signals it is in the middle of an ABC-downmove. Right now bouncing-B.

Fridays close suggesting bounce-B is over, but a gap up Monday can extend it another 1-2 days.

 

Scenario right now suggesting some kind of low around July 23. If so, there should be a lower low ~8 weeks later (early Sept). Some other work suggest the low will be later in the fall.

Looking at year 2000 and 2007, they have a similar setup.

 

If we get something like this, we could bounce into spring 2019. That bounce and following summer-correction will decide whether this is a soft or hard bear.

 

Next 1-2 weeks looks key. A bigger bounce and testing June-highs suggest this 25 week cycle is not bearish. That favors a higher high in the fall. Weakness will signal we are analog to 2015, 2011, 2007 and 2000.



#2 bigbud

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Posted 02 July 2018 - 01:32 AM

The setup for SPX: crossing below weekly close 25 weeks ago at a certain time-interval of the 25 week cycle, and breaking below a trendline.

SPX is now below SPX 25 weeks ago, and this is happening at the same cycle-point as year 2000, 2007 and 2015.
The lower trendline is now at ~2715 from daily close, and ~2675 from intraday candles.

The ~4 week cycle is bullish this week until July ~8, but that may fail in this context.
If/when breaking below the swing-low in late May, the setup is pretty much wrapped.

Then we can look for the 25-week cycle low in mid-Aug, but the low could extend into September if we get some bearish action.

 

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btw some indexes have allready confirmed signal, like DOW industrials and GDOW.
 


Edited by bigbud, 02 July 2018 - 01:36 AM.