Using cycles of ~3,5 years, ~25 weeks and ~4 weeks
3,5 year cycle topping (top was January?)
25 week cycle ha low around mid August, if bearish it may stretch into Sept or even Oct.
If bearish, SPX should not test June highs from here.
DOW hourly signals it is in the middle of an ABC-downmove. Right now bouncing-B.
Fridays close suggesting bounce-B is over, but a gap up Monday can extend it another 1-2 days.
Scenario right now suggesting some kind of low around July 23. If so, there should be a lower low ~8 weeks later (early Sept). Some other work suggest the low will be later in the fall.
Looking at year 2000 and 2007, they have a similar setup.
If we get something like this, we could bounce into spring 2019. That bounce and following summer-correction will decide whether this is a soft or hard bear.
Next 1-2 weeks looks key. A bigger bounce and testing June-highs suggest this 25 week cycle is not bearish. That favors a higher high in the fall. Weakness will signal we are analog to 2015, 2011, 2007 and 2000.