Jump to content



Photo

US Dollar bear market is over


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 tsharp

tsharp

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 942 posts

Posted 03 July 2018 - 05:26 PM

The US dollar peaked in a Wave-III in February, 1985 at 164.72 in an epic parabolic rise in price over five year’s time.

The initial decline was also epic, as nearly all the gains were given back in only about two years.

But the decline didn’t stop there… the US dollar continued in its bear market until May, 2011, reaching a truncated Wave-v:C:IV low of 72.70.

Since then, the US dollar began its new long-term (LT) bull market, rising to a wave-i high of 103.82, and a typical wave-ii 50% correction to 88.26.

It appears wave-iii is already underway, and by my initial fractal work, a price target of 138.67 is what I’m looking for… time will tell!

DXY_M_7.3.18.jpg

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/ptn3w46i1/



#2 tsharp

tsharp

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 942 posts

Posted 03 July 2018 - 08:38 PM

I find it interesting that as the dollar's bull market gets started again, gold is moving downward in its wave-C:IV... I suspect gold will fall to the 900-1000 level before wave-V begins in earnest.... time will tell.

 

Gold_W_7.3.18.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/t4knnilhl/



#3 hhh

hhh

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 114 posts

Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:05 PM

B looks suspect to me in that its endpoint is lower than the lowest part of A. I thought the rule for a flat was that Wave B retraces at least 70% of wave A so can't possibly be lower than A's lowest point?



#4 tsharp

tsharp

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 942 posts

Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:11 PM

B looks suspect to me in that its endpoint is lower than the lowest part of A. I thought the rule for a flat was that Wave B retraces at least 70% of wave A so can't possibly be lower than A's lowest point?

 

Not sure what you mean exactly...

Wave-c:A = 1528.50

Wave-c:B = 1374.70

Just a running b-wave...

I don't call my work EW, but fractal theory... but then again I haven't been calling every high in the US financial markets since 1997 the GSC Top.

Bottom line is, regardless of the exact "wave count," that gold just re-entered bear market status, based on the momentum indicator line crossing down over the UTL.



#5 hhh

hhh

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 114 posts

Posted 04 July 2018 - 08:51 AM

Please disregard my comment then, it looked like E-wave to me. E-wave theory should not be conflated with certain incompetent practitioners which it too often seems to be.



#6 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 66 posts

Posted 04 July 2018 - 09:55 AM

From a secular standpoint USD has been in a bear market for quite a while.....this is just a trend of major lower highs followed by major lower lows, and not any kind of wave structure labeling.  But right now it is also confirmed by declining long term MAs......40 month and 200 month.  Not LT bull market stuff.  If it can get above the recent high at 103.81, then it's a start at changing the trend.  But I doubt that can happen while Trump is in office - not impossible, just the most unlikely scenario.  The bullish cup would be formed slightly above the 121.21 high from 2001.....and that is what real bull markets always do.  The bullish cup will be there at 121.22.....something like a large ABC from the 2011 low to get up there.  Can it form the cup and not break below the 71.33 low from 2008.  It's a massive range for a currency......



#7 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 66 posts

Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:05 AM

I think the best barometer on the USD is whether it can exceed what I would call the left shoulder peak at 105.10 from 1989.  Until it does that, there's nothing of significance to report.



#8 robo

robo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 635 posts

Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:03 PM

I think the best barometer on the USD is whether it can exceed what I would call the left shoulder peak at 105.10 from 1989.  Until it does that, there's nothing of significance to report.

The US dollar, The Fed Rate Hikes, The Prime Lending Rate, US Stocks and gold relationships since 1981. I bought my first house when the rates were about 14%, and those were the good old days to have money in a savings account. Man have things changed....

 

I sure don't know where the dollar is headed next, but anything is possible these days with the things coming out of the White House...

 


Edited by robo, 04 July 2018 - 05:07 PM.