You guys skipped the 2020 Presidential election?
Momentum flagging, "Fake Tariff War" may deliver a fatal blow
Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:33 AM
I absolutely agree with FIB et al that many countries, especially CHINA, took advantage of lax and loose regulations and laws to dump stuff on the US market. I also agree that many previous Presidents were too darn cowardly and/or careless in not taking drastic action to rectify this but Trump has decided he will go after these countries, a commendable act.
However, President Trump is going about this the wrong way and risks serious damage to the US & global economy, and the roaring US financial markets.
TRADE WARS can be contagious and can spread rapidly across the world, with those who started it losing control and unable to stop it. There is immense confidence and strength in the US economy & markets; this must be nurtured rather than squandered in a useless and ill-advised global trade war.
There is still time for President Trump do this the right way and achieve very good results. The markets and economy are quite strong and can still move forward even if there is targeted, useful, and well-organized Trade negotiations that can come to a mutually beneficial agreement without wrecking the US and global economy.. I think Trump & his advisers will recognize this and pull-back from the current modus opersndi.
The trade war is good for politics though it's bad for the economy.
The market is now waiting for the other boot to drop from China in a few days. Not a bullish outlook there.
Edited by redfoliage2, 11 July 2018 - 11:37 AM.
Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:50 AM
However, the announcement of more "fake tariffs" in another installment of this phony tariff war could deliver serious blows to the bulls.
Nobody I read said that the tariffs were "fake"...only that we have no war.
BTW...several steel and aluminum plants are now hiring again in Pennsylvania...it's working.
And the more pressure we put on those who have been screwing us for over 40 years, the more they're going to squeal.
All they have to do is give us parity and *poof* this too will go away and there will be true equality.
This is what is called "pushing back" against globalism....they need us more than we need them.
Meanwhile, we did a lot of this to ourselves: Congress was generous in allowing tax write offs for offshoring and profits to be
transferred offshore. The new tax cut law did nothing to correct this.
Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:53 AM
The good news from yesterday is that the Russell 2000 hit an intraday all-time high at 1708.56, edging out intraday highs from June 20th and 21st. The bad news? Sellers took over from there. The record took place in the opening minutes on Tuesday, then the reversal took place. Here's a 10 day, 10 minute chart that shows the slide in small caps after the opening bell:
This is noteworthy because the small cap Russell 2000 has been the leading index in 2018, along with the NASDAQ. Hitting a key high and reversing often times sets a short-term top.
Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:21 PM
Closed a few short positions, somewhat skeptical of this decline.
Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:22 PM
I have to see SPX below the critical 2740/45 support in order to be a believer of this market drop.