Jump to content



Photo

Easy Money Over, Show Time Begins As Real Macro Battle Ahead by Ricky Wen


  • Please log in to reply
No replies to this topic

#1 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 19,164 posts

Posted 18 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

The market went according to expectations and projections in the second week of July after the first week's huge bull reversal week. The bulls were able to retain their bull train momentum from the prior week and managed to do a decent job on the standard continuation upside pattern demonstrated by the consecutive higher lows and higher highs on the micro charts.

For the most part it was just a typical perfect week following our 4-hour white line projection chart.  Initially rejected at the major 2800 level on the S&P 500, the bulls held the expected pullback with a low of 2765.75 on Tuesday night and eventually managed to wrap up the week around the highs at 2800 for the weekly candle.

With our upside thesis of two weeks ago fulfilled in fast manner, in which we noted we expected 75-100 ES points off the 2700-2720 support area, now the real fun begins as uncertainty and other factors begin to loom over our heads. Short-term, easy money is considered over and it seems like the next 30-40 points could determine the next 100-200 points of movement given the important resistance and target zone ahead around 2830-2840. The failure to reach or the success to fulfill should invalidate or confirm a lot of things for the rest of the week just judging on the momentum of the train.

Currently, the market is now testing the March highs in the 2800-2807 area, and the monthly candle is trying to really squeeze out of this range since the huge February monthly candle of 2837.25 -2529. If you recall, we had been treating the low of the year as in since March, and now the market is close enough to a fairly high enough backtest of the prior highs to attempt for new all-time highs.

What’s next?

Friday closed at 2804.25 at the highs of the week so the bulls did a wonderful job cementing the continuation week pattern.  With the market in trending mode, our 4-hour white line projection remains king for now as the market heads towards final 2830-2840 target zone.

Heading into this week, it’s more or less the same until the market could at least pierce below trending support levels to tell us otherwise. Immediate trending supports have moved up a bit again to 2792 and 2774 where bulls have an edge for now when above these immediately. Daily support is pretty much the same as the market is currently sporting an accelerated 8EMA upside like we noted last week so nothing has changed in that regard per momentum rules. (Bears need below 2774 to confirm a temporary top of sorts and another consolidation pattern likely begins on daily chart again.)

As noted above, with the easy money considered over, traders should remain a little more nimble and cautious this week.

See charts accompanying our article, "Easy Money Over, Show Time Begins As Real Macro Battle Ahead."

full-a0dc17f4deacb3883d4500be8f7cb31fdcd
es july15review
full-1f34295c8b2c616bfc0033bfa9b339916be
es july15review2
full-7b36983a6d337a970fb3ce4a6c9e0d0d5f1
es july15review3
full-033b8dc8b7f8cdf8a52ac490c598346f955
es july15review4
full-45892f92d649bc8cdd36174d9b9b504de4e
es july15review5
full-7e260764fb743f1d1ae4bedd391cf68f1a6
es july15review6_same_pro
 
Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.

 


Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter