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Elevated Risk of a Turn Monday and Thursday


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 04:12 PM

The system turn or acceleration of the current trend risk windows this week are Monday the 13th and Thursday the 16th.  

 

Last Wednesday's risk window was a bulls eye catching the turn.  Most of the web chatter I see says that the S&P island reversal in the sky is no big deal and higher highs are straight ahead.  The hair on the back of neck stands up when I hear "everyone" believes something.  The contrarian call would seem to be an acceleration down event, but as I've said ad nauseam here, my cracked crystal ball is worse than tarot cards at calling the future.  Let's see what the futures night monkeys do tomorrow.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 K Wave

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Posted 13 August 2018 - 07:28 AM

NQ hit my downside target zone of the rising hourly 200 MA overnight.

 

Now we appear to be getting a decent bounce. So 2 big pivots look set at 7500, and 7375 areas.

 

If bulls can go up now and take out 7500 for real, they could absolutely blow the roof off this in a massive short squeeze....

 

But...if 7375 get blown out, time frames will start to roll over downside, and could lead to a sharp move down...

 

Looks like it may be all about whether or not AAPL can continue to hold the 1T level over the next few days.

so far looks like possible bull flag after earnings, but if it starts trading for any length of time below 207, then a full scale reversal of the earning pop, and a lot more, could be in the works....

 

I am cautiously bullish off the overnight low, but on the lookout for signs of danger, because should they appear, things could unravel quite quickly.

 

NAZ summation turned back down on Friday, and is just barely above Zero. If this were to fall apart after the open, and we ended up today seeing a massive gap through the Zero line, would be hard to not view that as a big warning sign....

 

OTOH, big positive breadth day, and say AAPL pushing out over 210 would likely be a good sign for bulls.

 

Next few hours/days could be critical in determining whether we get an August short squeeze blowoff, or another Mid-August disaster like 2015 when NAZ was right near its highs with a very weak summation...


Edited by K Wave, 13 August 2018 - 07:28 AM.