28 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Here's the thing...

 

Without knowing the short term "trend", it becomes highly difficult to trade the hourly as to its larger overall "bias" and, whoosh, something like today takes place when you might be fully committed on the other side of the trade.

 

Therefore, systems are nice, but knowing whether the waters or smooth or choppy can be the difference between a good trade and one that could had been better exploited and to better profitability.

 

For further example, when in a short term trading range, options are a complete "waste of time and money" due to time decay *unless* they are deeply in the money.

 

Fib

Oh so true and as I learned in 1988 its better to sell options than buy them!!

[CLK]

Well my cheap calls I bought yesterday for hedge are up 300%, I'm net positive on the day after going out 4 to 1 short,

now I'm partially hedged for tomorrow, but I'm giving most some more room here. If there is no impulsive action, I at least hedge.

My system is not predictive, I have to take drawdowns sometimes.

Edited by CLK, 16 August 2018 - 12:47 PM.

[CLK]

A big down day tomorrow would not surprise me here. A close at 2820 today or tomorrow will be a H&S top

and could get real ugly from there fast.

[cycletimer]

Here's the thing...
 
Without knowing the short term "trend", it becomes highly difficult to trade the hourly as to its larger overall "bias" and, whoosh, something like today takes place when you might be fully committed on the other side of the trade.
 
Therefore, systems are nice, but knowing whether the waters or smooth or choppy can be the difference between a good trade and one that could had been better exploited and to better profitability.
 
For further example, when in a short term trading range, options are a complete "waste of time and money" due to time decay *unless* they are deeply in the money.
 
Fib

Oh so true and as I learned in 1988 its better to sell options than buy them!!

Exactly the reason why I rarely buy premium and most times sell premium; either puts or credit spreads. Either way makes money most of the time.

[12SPX]

Well my cheap calls I bought yesterday for hedge are up 300%, I'm net positive on the day after going out 4 to 1 short,

now I'm partially hedged for tomorrow, but I'm giving most some more room here. If there is no impulsive action, I at least hedge.

My system is not predictive, I have to take drawdowns sometimes.

Agree on that with the ease of trading today, technicals, commissions being super low.  When I was an option day trader in 88 I paid about $300 in commissions and made $75 lol!  Another reason it was better to just sell out of the money options.  I've been trained now to just sell though since I've done it so long.  Once in a while if the markets up enough I'll buy some cheap weekly options and I think more lucky than anything getting profits on them.

[CLK]

 

Well my cheap calls I bought yesterday for hedge are up 300%, I'm net positive on the day after going out 4 to 1 short,

now I'm partially hedged for tomorrow, but I'm giving most some more room here. If there is no impulsive action, I at least hedge.

My system is not predictive, I have to take drawdowns sometimes.

Agree on that with the ease of trading today, technicals, commissions being super low.  When I was an option day trader in 88 I paid about $300 in commissions and made $75 lol!  Another reason it was better to just sell out of the money options.  I've been trained now to just sell though since I've done it so long.  Once in a while if the markets up enough I'll buy some cheap weekly options and I think more lucky than anything getting profits on them.

 

 

You do use stops right ?   Selling, you are limited in what you can make unless you really ramp up the contracts, then you need

a lot of margin. Credit spreads is probably all I would be willing to do.

[12SPX]

 

 

Well my cheap calls I bought yesterday for hedge are up 300%, I'm net positive on the day after going out 4 to 1 short,

now I'm partially hedged for tomorrow, but I'm giving most some more room here. If there is no impulsive action, I at least hedge.

My system is not predictive, I have to take drawdowns sometimes.

Agree on that with the ease of trading today, technicals, commissions being super low.  When I was an option day trader in 88 I paid about $300 in commissions and made $75 lol!  Another reason it was better to just sell out of the money options.  I've been trained now to just sell though since I've done it so long.  Once in a while if the markets up enough I'll buy some cheap weekly options and I think more lucky than anything getting profits on them.

 

 

You do use stops right ?   Selling, you are limited in what you can make unless you really ramp up the contracts, then you need

a lot of margin. Credit spreads is probably all I would be willing to do.

 

Yes thats how the subject got going maybe in a different post.  Margins used to be super low but now super high for naked selling so you buy protection and if trading more technically still have stops on.  I've been doing it since the 1900's lol!!

[CLK]

They are going to pin the market and take me to the cleaners, no chance globex highs get exceeded and

probably won't drop much now either. Typical opex.

[12SPX]

They are going to pin the market and take me to the cleaners, no chance globex highs get exceeded and

probably won't drop much now either. Typical opex.

If you wanna fun daring trade the SP500 futures option 2850 that expires at the close is still holding about $1.50 premium with 4 hours to go.  Overnight it was up to $4.65, ridiculous how some traders work.  I figure if the market remains flat till 2 hours to go it'll be worth about .50, nice little profit for fun but is risky all in all lol!!  This isn't a recommendation just to make it clear lol!!

[CLK]

Sold my 285 calls 4 points out, that's how much I believe the highs are in for the day.