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ST short, IT short, bulls still hold the advantage; Crash Window still cracked open


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:28 AM

Updated EXIT stops:

ST short: SPX 2901.4

IT short SPX 2903.7

 

SPX 2900 and 2880 are the nearby important levels 

 

Yesterday's market action can be summarized as a relatively minor blip down but bulls came back strongly and could do so again today unless bears are more motivated. 

 

Good range yesterday, I had several great day trades (all ES except one CRUDE) during the morning session and then in the late afternoon session after a almost 2-hour lull. Closed closed 4 QQQ puts & VXX long position. 

 

Looking for more CRUDE trades (long or short) and more long VXX trades, still partly SHORT overall.


Edited by dTraderB, 05 September 2018 - 06:30 AM.


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:30 AM

The Doom & Gloom headlines:

Italy’s spending plans are rattling markets again: MarketWatch
GOP looks for plan to avoid gov’t shutdown ahead of elections: Politico 
South Africa falls into recession for first time since 2009: Bloomberg
UK Manufacturing PMI slips to 25-month low: IHS Markit 
Chicago PMI fell in August–first slide in five months: Chicago ISM
US Consumer Index dipped to 7-month low in August: CNBC



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:44 AM

"While the market dipped Tuesday, the losses were modest and we are still at levels that were all-time highs last week. This is more of an exhale following a strong run than the start of a bigger correction. This is an incredibly resilient market and owners have refused to sell far more dire headlines this spring and summer. There is no reason to think anything changed this week.

As I wrote last week, there are plenty of good reasons to take profits at these highs, but selling because Canada didn’t jump aboard Trump’s ‘new and improved’ NAFTA deal by an artificially imposed Friday deadline is not one of those reasons.

We take profits because it’s been a nice run. We take profits because we are running into resistance. We take profits because we buy weakness and sell strength. We take profits because we need cash to buy the next dip. But we definitely don’t sell because we are afraid of Canada collapsing this market.

Personally, I would love it if this selling spiraled out of control so that we could jump in at much lower levels. Unfortunately, I doubt we get that lucky. Instead, I expect this dip to bounce quickly. Support at the old highs near 2,870 is as far as this goes, and most likely we won’t even get that far. This is simply an exhale after a nice run and we shouldn’t read too much into this normal, healthy, and periodic gyration.

Until further notice, keep doing what has been working. That means buying weakness and selling strength in our short-term trading account and sitting on our favorite stocks with our longer-term investments."



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 12:23 PM

SPX 2880 is a very important level

 

TIM ORD is now long. 

He is almost never wrong,,,,,

 

We are back long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52.  

 

https://stockcharts....ber-5-2018.html



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 12:36 PM

What Silver Is Saying

By Ira Iosebashvili, markets reporter

 

A relentless fall in the price of silver and other metals is troubling investors, who believe the drop may augur a bout of weakness in the global economy.

Silver prices hit their lowest level since early 2016 on Tuesday bringing its year-to-date decline to 18%. Prices for the metal lost some 6.9% in August alone, even as the dollar declined. Normally, a weaker dollar tends to buoy commodities, which are denominated in the U.S. currency and become more expensive to foreign buyers when the dollar rises.

Silver's slide is a worrying development for some market participants, who are concerned that its falling price signals weaker global manufacturing. Although classified as a precious metal, silver is used in a broad range of industrial applications, from electronics to jet engine manufacturing, making it sensitive to global economic currents.

The decline is part of a broader selloff in metals that has come amid an intensifying trade conflict between the U.S. and China and turbulence in emerging markets. Copper prices are down 21% this year, while gold has lost 8.7%.

At the same time, silver has been buffeted by a climb in the U.S. dollar that has pressured prices for most commodities, with the exception of oil. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 others, is up 4.7% this year.

And while investors sometimes gravitate toward silver and gold when markets turn rocky, the dollar's rally has lately discouraged them from buying metals, instead steering some toward other popular havens, such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

"Silver prices are getting hit from two sides," said George Gero, managing director at RBC Capital Markets. "Buyers and bargain hunters are looking for lower prices to reenter the market. But not at these levels."

Are you worried about falling silver prices? Tell the author your thoughts at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com.

 



#6 q4wer

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 12:49 PM

SPX 2880 is a very important level

 

TIM ORD is now long. 

He is almost never wrong,,,,,

 

We are back long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52.  

 

https://stockcharts....ber-5-2018.html

He can be wrong miserably,  I have known his market views for the last 20 years.  Interviewed by Ike etc.... But no one is always right.  Through the bull market since 2009, the mega bulls never prepared for a draw down like the end of January 2018, and a few other draw downs. But thanks to this fake bull market's exuberant granulations, they have been winners.



#7 SemiBizz

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 12:56 PM

zipped.gif zipped.gifzipped.gif  


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#8 da_cheif

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:53 PM

 

SPX 2880 is a very important level

 

TIM ORD is now long. 

He is almost never wrong,,,,,

 

We are back long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52.  

 

https://stockcharts....ber-5-2018.html

He can be wrong miserably,  I have known his market views for the last 20 years.  Interviewed by Ike etc.... But no one is always right.  Through the bull market since 2009, the mega bulls never prepared for a draw down like the end of January 2018, and a few other draw downs. But thanks to this fake bull market's exuberant granulations, they have been winners.

 

>But thanks to this fake bull market's exuberant granulations<   is that something like this from 6 years ago??   lol  https://nypost.com/2...st-an-illusion/



#9 q4wer

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Posted 06 September 2018 - 05:54 PM

Top Advisors Corner September 05, 2018 at 01:15 PM

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Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 5, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. We research a lot of different ratios, some provide good information and others, not so much.  The middle window above is the four period moving average of the Tick/Vix raito.  When this ratio is above +18 the market has been near a short term high and below -10 the market has been near a short term low.  Today’s close came at -12.21.  Also the



#10 q4wer

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Posted 06 September 2018 - 05:54 PM

If bull is alive,  go long, not me, I just day trade. :)