5 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Edited by dTraderB, 10 September 2018 - 06:07 PM.

[dTraderB]

ST SHORT stop exit 2882

IT SHORT stop exit 2888

Edited by dTraderB, 10 September 2018 - 06:09 PM.

[dTraderB]

Notable is that the August highs did not quite tag the upper channel and last week’s pullback has broken this recent channel to the downside. The lower channel has been tagged over a dozen times as support previously and has produced tradable rallies from this trend line.

Typically a confirmed break of lower trend line support would suggest further downside risk.

However $NDX trend line analysis can also be viewed on a longer term time frame and here an additional dimension can define the current price zone as support:

 

 

Note the current trend line proximity offered resistance in 2017 until it finally broke above in January 2018. The February 2018 correction  appeared to break this trend line for good before finding support at the 3rd trend line. The trend line became resistance again in April and May, but has re-established itself as support again.

Given the frequency of tags of this trend line it is to be viewed with some caution in terms of its going forward reliability. However as of this writing it still offers support and may produce a rally.

Should price break this key trend line in context of the earlier chart downside risk into the next lower trend line opens up.

Bottomline: Bulls need to recapture the trend line in chart 1 and avoid a break of the support trend line in chart 2.

 

 

https://northmantrad...rt-chatter-ndx/

[dTraderB]

Moves by major U.S. stock indexes have been subdued recently, a signal that investors are waiting for new catalysts before making big changes to their portfolios.

The S&P 500 has gone 53 trading days without a move of 1% in either direction, the longest such streak since January and just the fifth time the benchmark index has moved less than 1% on 50 consecutive days in the past five years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

It last moved at least 1% on June 25, falling as trade fears gripped global markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have also been relatively calm recently, though certain sectors have at times been volatile. 

Although trade barbs have only intensified lately, with President Trump Friday threatening tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods, analysts say the market has grown more comfortable with the rhetoric and is now waiting for an ultimate resolution.

At the same time, investors also appear more confident that the U.S. economy can withstand gradually rising inflation and interest rates, with major indexes hardly budging after Friday’s wage growth figure matched the strongest monthly reading since 2009.

Analysts say investor comfort with the major issues dictating market moves shows many are looking for changes to that backdrop before adjusting their portfolios, a sign that the recent quiet period could continue as the third quarter comes to an end.

“The markets look like they’re a little bit more in a ‘wait and see’ mode where they’re used to a lot of the positioning,” said Shawn Cruz, manager of trader strategy at TD Ameritrade. “It’s in stark contrast to what happened earlier in the year.”

The last time the S&P 500 went this long without a 1% move was in January when it surged before tumbling during February’s bout of volatility.

With corporate profits already growing at their quickest pace in years, some analysts think it will take a similar wave of selling or unexpected shift in economic or earnings data to jolt markets out of their recent lull. 

Others think the key lies in ongoing trade discussions with China. Months of rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies have some investors generally ignoring day-to-day headlines.

“Markets are starting to look past that and waiting to see what actually gets done,” Mr. Cruz said.

Are you worried about the market's recent lull? Let the author know your thoughts at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com. 

[dTraderB]

Disagree with the analysis below, unless the market can close below SPX 2860 by end of this week. Unless that happens, the market will challenge the recent highs and move towards the SPX 3000 level. A weekly close below SPX 2860 leads to a retest of 2790/2800 and then ....

 

The status of the daily equity cycle has been unclear. But what is clear is that either scenario has a bearish outcome.

 

Monday was either day 50 or day 17 for the daily equity cycle.

Under the scenario that Monday was day 50, that would place stocks deep into its timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks have closed below the 10 day MA for the third straight day. At this late stage of the daily equity cycle, losing the 10 day MA should send stocks into their final decline into their daily cycle low. Stocks would need to break below the (solid blue) daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

I am in the camp that a daily cycle low formed back in August on day 33 making Monday day 17 for the daily equity cycle. Under this scenario that makes this the 5th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Intermediate cycles usually consist of 3 or 4 daily cycles. Having an intermediate cycle with over 4 daily cycles is rare. That makes it likely that with this being the 5th daily cycle that it will be the terminal daily cycle to the intermediate cycle. The final daily cycle typically left translates and fails in order to print the intermediate cycle low. Therefore stocks should break below the day 33 low of 2802.49 in order to form a failed daily cycle and complete its intermediate cycle decline.

[redfoliage2]

Let's see how the market will be doing after 12 pm.............