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My best day since Oct 2008.... dead cat bounce now?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:18 PM

Awesome NQ daytrading, was almost on auto mode with trail stops hardly threatened.

 

There is a high probability of a dead-cat bounce after such extreme sentiment and then after that bounce we will see the real intentions of the market - resume downtrend or morph into a reversal to the upside. 

 

Next target below is the well-watched SPX 200ma @ 2765, today's close was 2786.

 

Lower down there is the 2740 region, and the most important support zone @ 2690/2700; below that is a rapid waterfall decline to 2018 lows. 

 

Minor resistance at 2790 and 2800, that 2790/2800 SPX zone has been very decisive in recent months and a breakout up or below that usually determines the IT trend. 

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#2 dTraderB

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:16 PM

Carl: I'm not sure that today's volume was sufficiently climactic to mark a bottom.

 

15392059409171420875006.png

CONCLUSION: Some important support is not far below. If the rising trend line is violated, I would consider that a serious problem. For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens.

 

More here:

https://stockcharts....is-support.html



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:18 PM

Tim Ord:  A possible downside target is the 200-day moving average near the 2760 range.

 

https://stockcharts....er-10-2018.html



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:43 PM

Don't worry, yet.....

 

Still, there’s reason not to get too worried yet, say some. JPMorgan ’s Jason Hunter thinks we may have seen the worst of the news from the bond market, as recent action leaves him “looking for yields to form a bullish reversal pattern near current levels and define the cheaper end of the fourth-quarter 2018 to first-quarter 2019 range.”

In addition, Fundstrat’s Robert Sluymer argues that in the near term, stocks look oversold and “due for a rebound,” as the S&P tests its first support at its 50-day moving average, and the Nasdaq, at its 100-day moving average. “An oversold rally is likely to develop in the coming few days,” he says. Earnings season should improve investors’ moods through the end of the year, he writes, with a cycle peak in 2020 and the next major low not due until 2020.

 

Earnings were a major driver of the market last quarter, and analysts see more robust results ahead, even if companies face growing issues like the yet-to-be-resolved trade war and higher raw-materials costs.

Then there’s the fact that we were probably due for a bit of a shake-up. As LPL Financials’ Ryan Detrick notes, the S&P 500 just came off its least volatile third quarter since 1963, has been up for six consecutive months, and hasn’t closed up or down more than 1% for more than three straight months, “one of the longest streaks ever.” Thus, it isn’t surprising that we’re finally getting a bit of volatility. “It might feel bad when it happens, but pullbacks are a normal part of bull markets.” And if history is any guide, we won’t have to endure too much, as the S&P has been up an average of 14.5% a year after all midterm elections going back to 1946, while all 18 midterms saw higher returns 12 months later, he notes.

https://www.barrons....-yet-1539190193



#5 PrintFaster

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 09:25 PM

Don't fade this.....

 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 06:03 AM

Is there an intraday Summation Index from anyone (free or paid) ? 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 06:04 AM

I am looking for a low today, then a bounce, and then.....? 

 

The ES Futures low could have been last night but will not rule out a spike down to 2742. 

 

But all this could be trumped by non-market factors 



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 08:59 AM

Enjoy the bounce, trade those NQ futures!



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:01 AM

they are front-running the SPX 200ma !!!



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:03 AM

looking for NQ 7000 bounce