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Crash update


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#1 NAV

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 09:39 AM

Let's face it. There has been no crash so far. We are down about 10% from the top. We have never had more than 3% drop in a day. So yes, there has been no crash, But the volatility makes it feel like a crash everyday, if you watch the tape. And if you read this board you will feel like we have crashed many times so far. This is by far the largest concentration of Crash posts i have seen ever on this board and i have been watching this board for 15 years ! 

 

Can we crash ? Yes, only if we break SPX 2500. 2500 is major long term support channel for this bull and until that goes there will be no crash move. If we don't break SPX 2500 by the elections or after the election day, then most crash experts will need to find a new career. Just kidding !

 

Having said that, my ST has been down for quite some time. My IT went bearish after the break of 2715. My LT continues to be long above 2500.

 

I have stated this before. If we break 2500 then look for 8-12 months bear market. If 2500 holds, we are near the vicinity of a very important bottom. I am open minded on either outcome.


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#2 MDurkin

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 10:09 AM

Let's face it. There has been no crash so far. We are down about 10% from the top. We have never had more than 3% drop in a day. So yes, there has been no crash, But the volatility makes it feel like a crash everyday, if you watch the tape. And if you read this board you will feel like we have crashed many times so far. This is by far the largest concentration of Crash posts i have seen ever on this board and i have been watching this board for 15 years ! 

 

Can we crash ? Yes, only if we break SPX 2500. 2500 is major long term support channel for this bull and until that goes there will be no crash move. If we don't break SPX 2500 by the elections or after the election day, then most crash experts will need to find a new career. Just kidding !

 

Having said that, my ST has been down for quite some time. My IT went bearish after the break of 2715. My LT continues to be long above 2500.

 

I have stated this before. If we break 2500 then look for 8-12 months bear market. If 2500 holds, we are near the vicinity of a very important bottom. I am open minded on either outcome.

Good thoughts as usual. 



#3 GreatWarrior

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 10:28 AM

There has been no crash so far. .. We have never had more than 3% drop in a day. So yes, there has been no crash, ...

 

No Crash, You sure? How about yesterday Monday SPX went to high of 2706, then proceed to tank to low of 2603? 103 points, with previous day Friday denominator SPX 2658 = 3.8% move. 

 

yes.gif  

 

Anyway, Hope to see you around posting real time updates on your trades and thoughts. Appreciate your effort.

 

Thanks



#4 slupert

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 11:01 AM

I'm having a hard time getting the 2500 breaks then we crash, I think support at 2450 holds and that is the bottom (JMHO)



#5 pdx5

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 12:26 PM

Watch results on Nov 6th evening. Nov 7 markets will depend bigly on those results.

You read it here first! swoon.gif Market is already nervous due to so many close races.


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#6 K Wave

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 01:35 PM

Watch results on Nov 6th evening. Nov 7 markets will depend bigly on those results.

You read it here first! swoon.gif Market is already nervous due to so many close races.

 

Probably a good time to buy if we keep washing out into that event....



#7 chem

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 02:28 PM

ideally - down to 2500ish followed by a bounce retrace of 100+ points - and a final low 2390-2320. This ideal would accomplish many objectives firstly a completed expanded flat w?, secondly it would help reset the continuing bull run with an oft called for 20% correction, thirdly the bears would come out of the woodwork citing the aforementioned 20% correction as evidence of a bear market. All this lines up ideally to setup further bull advance with many left at the station anticipating the crash right around the corner... but I would view any break of 2320 as problematic for further advance.



#8 da_cheif

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Posted 30 October 2018 - 07:02 PM

the low is in.......ge the buy of a decade  with 350 million shares traded   https://www.siliconi...?msgid=31861456



#9 NAV

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Posted 02 November 2018 - 03:44 AM

A few months back i had posted a long term target of 7 for GE (when GE was at 13). We are in the vicinity of that. Long term investors can start averaging at this level. It's a great value buy IMO.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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