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Bearish close as Bulls snatch defeat from the jaws of victory....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:25 PM

...unless they can recoup some of the gains they lost in the last hour. 

 

That daily candle looks like a guy desperately hanging on, not a perfect Shooting Star candle, but too close to that for bulls to be confortable.  

 

Not that it was a bad day for the bulls since one can say, justifiabley so to a certain extent, that the markets had a good up day, even though some of the gains were wiped out late in the session, and today's market action can be characterized as consolidation after yesterday's rally. 

 

But, in the context of steep declines during October, with a 4% reversal from the daily high to the October lows on Monday, today's late sell-off may indicate there are many sellers waiting to pounce on any rally, and the bulls still seem too weak to defend their hard-fought gains. 

 

SPX 20ma is just above the 200ma (brown on red) @ 2765; this remains the most important near term target for the bulls during the next few sessions. 

 

I had my best month since 2008 even though I traded more conservatively during yesterday & today. Let's wish all of us a profitable November & December. 

 

45122120_10156386919200783_5811022143680



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:35 PM

15410282201781806046712.png

 

This chart clearly shows the break of the 2016 trend line. Below we will examine the placement of long term Basing Point stops.

15410282486541853936762.pnghttp://schrts.co/tfJisN

It is always wise to know where the long term stops (calculated from Basing Points) are located. In this chart, the horizontal lines represent stop locations depending on the Basing Point you choose. In our opinion the lower line (2429) is the signal that the bull market has broken. Nevertheless the upper line (2537) is a valid stop level also. So if the risk between the present price and the 2429 stop is uncomfortable you can use the upper stop.

Volatility risk remains sky high. Long positions are extremely subject to turbulence. Well--so are shorts.

https://stockcharts....oint-stops.html



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:42 PM


After a 673-point, 2-day surge for the Dow is the worst over for the stock market?

 Tom McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report and a high-profile chart technician, told MarketWatch that the recent downdraft has been a function of seasonal volatility associated with October and not a more significant upending of a 10-year bull market. He also said he views stocks as oversold and said he remains bullish on the stock-market outlook.

 

Jeff deGraaf, chairman of research firm Renaissance Macro Research, said he wants to see better market breadth and volume. “A sigh of relief fell over the [S]treet as the losing streak for equities abated near support at 2,600 on the SPX. We’d classify the rebound as ‘uninspiring,’ ” he said, referencing specifically Tuesday’s drive higher.

https://www.marketwa...ober-2018-10-31



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:47 PM

The big technology led the market upward. Now they’re helping to lead it lower. And it could be Apple, the last of the group to report quarterly earnings on Thursday, that determines the stock market’s next move.

....and NOTE the October JOBS REPORT (NFP) is on Friday morning.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:51 PM

This is somewhat melodramatic but Apple's earnings and the October NFP next morning are very important, but not make or break; there is a much more important event on Tuesday., and before that, between the NFP report and Tuesday morning, 3 days of wild & unpredictable campaigning. 

 

Why Nov. 1 is the make-or-break day for the stock market

Apple is the only FAANG stock to hold up, but that could change after the company reports quarterly earnings. If Apple falls, it’s likely that the market would follow.

 

https://www.marketwa...rket-2018-10-30



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:54 PM

Why a 240-point rally for the Dow and stock-market rebound is ‘uninspiring’

“A sigh of relief fell over the street as the losing streak for equities abated near support at 2600 on the SPX. We’d classify the rebound as ‘uninspiring’ where TRIN was a useless .61 and breadth a mediocre 2.2:1,” he wrote in a Wednesday research note. TRIN refers to a short-term technical trading indicator, developed by the late Richard Arms in the 1970s, that tracks volume in advancing and declining stocks.

MW-FV536_bearma_20171003123044_ZH.jpg?uu

 

https://www.marketwa...ring-2018-10-31



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:58 PM

https://stockcharts....s-go-final.html

15410254190971011535004.png



#8 RagingSpartan

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 07:00 PM

If Apple sells off after earnings then I would expect a Friday Monday selloff to around 2550 to 2600 right before the elections.

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 07:01 PM

Options Show Investors Aren't Panicking Yet

 

 

Panic in Stocks? Options Signal No

By Gunjan Banerji, options reporter

 

An unusual dynamic in options markets is signaling that investors aren’t panicking despite October’s stock-market drubbing: Expectations for volatility are greater in individual companies than the broader market.

This earnings season, options investors are pricing in some of the biggest swings from specific stocks since 2015, according to Credit Suisse Group. They have been singling out names like Facebook and General Electric in expectation of outsize moves after earnings reports.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is on track for its worst month since May 2010. Historically, when the market is in such turmoil, moves by stocks and sectors become tightly correlated. That, in turn, tends to spur investors to use bearish options on major indexes for protection from further losses.

Lately, though, investors haven’t been doing that, a potentially positive sign, analysts say.

“There’s not a lot of broad-based panic,” said Joanne Hill, chief advisor for research and strategy at Cboe Vest Financial. “People aren’t as nervous about holding [the S&P 500] than they are an overweight position in Facebook.”

It’s an indication that the October stock swoon has been driven more by idiosyncratic concerns related to specific company earnings than widespread worries about the economy, according to Mandy Xu, a derivatives strategist at Credit Suisse.

Of course, some investors are worried about global growth and are selling shares because of these concerns. And it can take time for economic headwinds to trickle into company earnings and depress the outlook of investors.

But in options markets, at least, there hasn’t been a stampede into benchmark protection.

Ms. Hill said the recent market volatility appears to be driven by investors rotating out of companies dependent on high growth like technology stocks. For example, a greater number of stocks actually advanced than declined on Monday. A few heavyweights like Amazon.com, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet made up the bulk of losses in the S&P 500, according to Wells Fargo Securities.

Meanwhile, moves in the Cboe Volatility Index have been relatively muted compared to the stock fall, analysts say. The measure called the VIX tracks expected swings in the S&P 500 and is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge.

Measures of expected volatility in oil, currencies and U.S. interest rates also remain relatively low—another sign investors aren’t as fearful as this month’s declines might indicate.

 

 



#10 da_cheif

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 07:18 PM

geez eh ...u guys still living with a 9 year old habit ...675  ono  snort