So says Northman Trader.
Look, if you don't know that bulls have the edge then you should not be trading!
The markets have been going up since the existence of the markets; hence, you
should be in the winning side if you want to make money over the long run.
Of course, you could also make tons of $$ by being short, AT THE RIGHT TIME!
Yes, it is true those who have the power do squeeze the FED to intervene at the right time, e.g. when SPX approached 2600
and the market was about to crash real hard, they came in. After years in the markets, you should be able to react to that and
also be on the alert for it.The Fed Crying Has Begun
So stocks dropped a little in October. Ok they actually dropped a lot and all of a sudden the S&P 500 was miles away from the all those optimistic 3,000+ year end targets. And what happens when stocks drop hard? Bulls cry for the Fed to come to the rescue.
It was quite the scene.
Here’s the global market cap wiped off in just October:
$8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The largest drop since 2008.
So it is no wonder the Fed begging has begun. From the president on down:
“If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.
Jim Cramer: “My main fear is that we could have a mini version of 2008 if the Fed doesn’t change course,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Our one hope? If Fed chief Jerome Powell actually starts listening to the stock market and wakes up to the damage that tariffs can do to the economy, then maybe he’ll shift gears, just like Greenspan did in ’98. Then we can bottom and even roar higher. But as long as Powell stays committed to the December hike and three more next year, … and the president stays committed to expanding his tariffs, then history says we’ve got more downside no matter what.”
Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer: “Fed needs to take its foot off the throat of the market.”
Bill Stone Avalon Advisors’ co-chief investment officer: “The one thing to watch is the Fed, the market is looking at the possibility of a policy error there — that they’ll tighten too hard.”
Merrill Lynch’s head of market strategy Joe Quinlan: “The current market rally has legs, as long as a hawkish Fed doesn’t stop it”
From the Financial Times:
“The market turmoil of the past month threatens to put the brakes on US economic growth, according to a closely watched measure of financial conditions. Conditions have tightened so sharply in recent weeks, investors are beginning to suggest that the Federal Reserve could limit the number of times it raises interest rates. The S&P 500 has tumbled over 8 per cent since the start of October — on course for its worst monthly performance since February 2009 — raising equity funding costs for companies and sending the Goldman Sachs’ financial conditions index to its highest level since April 2017. Measures of financial conditions typically factor in long-term bond yields, corporate borrowing rates, currency fluctuations and share prices, and assess how supportive or restrictive they are for the economy. Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said that investors were “getting nervous that the sell-off has tightened financial conditions enough that the Fed will struggle to achieve some of its policy goals, such as raising interest rates to their ideal target level.”