5 replies to this topic

[RagingSpartan]

It doesn't matter what the fed says or does on wed. The market is about to enter a fast decline.

[Comeback Kid]

and how do you know this?  Anything is possible but sentiment has gotten very negative pointing to a possible bottom. the VIX is pretty elevated too although not as high as last Feb 2018

[beta]

and how do you know this?  Anything is possible but sentiment has gotten very negative pointing to a possible bottom. the VIX is pretty elevated too although not as high as last Feb 2018

Too many bottom pickers.  You just answered your own question.

 

Great call, Spartan.  

[qqqqtrdr]

I must admit RagingSpartan has good track record, but I don't know how he models the market.   Does he use Cycles and EW and forgo sentiment altogether....      Given Sentiment readings, I know that it is likely we are at a bottom assuming that there was not a lot of covering of shorts today...   In some cases on days like today bears cover because they are afraid we are at a bottom, and because they cover it allows the market to continue to go down....   Sentiment indicators such as AAII and others come out on a weekly basis which is good enough for normal market trading, but with these ups and downs might fluctuate as well...  Week over week sentiment is becoming negative and trades are made a such that traders are betting the market will go lower.  Rydex Funds at the moment shows money in cash is at a 2 year high, but not invested this-proportionally  in bear funds...   This means that money is moving to the sidelines, and will need to move back into the market at sometime...

 

Barry

[flyers&divers]

We are not in ordinary times so we should not bank on a correction (let's call it a correction) ending the way it ended so many times in the past. 

They are armies of people who have been lured into thinking that selling options is a safe investment (promoters call it investment) they can win 86.5 % of the time. We yet have to see how that will end.

In the last few days I have met several young people who are loaded up on AAPL and NFLX, etc.who are like deer frozen in front of the headlights, they are in denial, they have not panicked yet.

In addition we have a truly unique and potent political situation, the other shoe may drop any time.

Until now the market has been very orderly. So, just by that that simple measure, until  we see some kind of headline making capitulation with chaotic conditions, this is not going to be over. 

Today's taking down the defensive stocks along with the others may be the first sign we are near.

Best of trading to all,

 

f&d

[LMF]

The decline is getting mature on the daily chart, with a second diverging low likely from today.  It is also close enough on par with the 2009 low based on the 50 day MA of the NYSE NH/NL ratio.  Long in the tooth here.....