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Crunch Time: Breakout UP or DOWn


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 07:14 AM

  1. #ChinaSlowing has been our call since JAN of 2018 - now the Chinese are just going to make up another round headline number > China to set lower GDP growth target of 6-6.5% in 2019 - Reuters

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    #EuropeSlowing has been our call for over a yea now - recessions follow ... and so do protests > France's "yellow vest" protests could shake up Eurozone bond markets - Reuters



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 07:18 AM

US economy is humming along nicely, low probability of recession in 2019, but 

CHINA and EUROPE are weakening

 

 

Holger Zschaepitz

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If Fed continues quantitative tightening, not only will $200bn in liquidity vaporize every 4mths but de facto tightening will amount to 1 hike a quarter; fin conditions will tighten as if Fed had maintained “gradual” rate tightening pace, Quill Intellígence' @DiMartinoBooth says.

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3:36 AM - 11 Jan 2019
 
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The “R” club is recruiting, BoAML's Moec says. #Germany on track for a technical recession, like #Italy. #France avoided GDP contraction in Q3, but steep decline in IP in Nov, even before the "yellow jackets" movement was in full swing, is not making us very confident.

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2:12 AM - 11 Jan 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 11 January 2019 - 07:19 AM.


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 07:21 AM

POWELL and the FED are losing it, they need to be more precise and consistent or else they will lose trust, confidence, and credibility

 

Downtown Josh Brown Retweeted Jonathan Ferro

Like everyone else in the world, he’s just making it up as he goes along. Which is why the parsing of statements and reading of body language and all the rest of the newsletter pseudoscience is so entertaining for me.

Downtown Josh Brown added,

Jonathan FerroVerified account @FerroTV
Powell is all over the place -Oct: rates a long way from neutral -Nov: just below range of estimates…
4:02 AM - 11 Jan 2019


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 07:37 AM

Key Events

The U.S. consumer-price index for December is out at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to fall 0.1% from a month earlier and rise 1.9% from one year earlier. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to rise 0.2% on the month and 2.2% on the year. 

The Baker-Hughes rig count is slated for 1 p.m. 

U.S. budget figures for December may be delayed due to the shutdown. (2 p.m.)

Xi’s top trade aide to visit U.S. for talks this month. China and the U.S. are moving ahead with plans to hold a round of higher-level trade talks, though a planned meeting could be delayed by the government shutdown.

Investor reactions to the Fed’s comments have been all over the map. Here’s a guide on how to view the central bank’s latest moves from senior markets columnist James Mackintosh. 

The partial government shutdown is making it harder to read the economy. Everyone from Fed officials to investors and trade negotiators is grappling with gaps in data that some say could lead to policy mistakes or more market volatility.

Apple's pressing challenge. The tech giant has held out its fast-growing services unit as a bright spot in an outlook dimmed by soft iPhone demand. But the services business faces hurdles of its own.

The strong economy didn't save retailers from holiday blues. Continuing to lose customers to discounters and e-commerce, other retailers including Kohl's and Victoria’s Secret owner L Brands also posted tepid holiday sales, triggering a broad-based selloff in retail stocks.

 



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 07:42 AM

S&P500 Key Levels by macromon

Nice price action today generating an outside day, which the textbooks tell us is a confirmation and continuation of the recent move.  No fight here.

Nevertheless, moving into the zone of heavy resistance as the S&P crosses 2600 and the 50-day and .50 Fibo at 2640ish become just a chip shot away.  Grab your gap wedge,  folks.

One Note Of Caution For The Bears

We are a bit concerned and nervous waiting for our short set-up as everyone and their mother are talking about the heavy resistance at 2600-2650, and also looking for a retest of the Dec 26th low.   There will have to be some real selling up there, which we think is probable given earnings should be sufficiently negative to break some supply loose.  Stay tuned.

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https://macromon.wor...0-key-levels-8/

S&P500 Key Levels by macromon

Nice price action today generating an outside day, which the textbooks tell us is a confirmation and continuation of the recent move.  No fight here.

Nevertheless, moving into the zone of heavy resistance as the S&P crosses 2600 and the 50-day and .50 Fibo at 2640ish become just a chip shot away.  Grab your gap wedge,  folks.