Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:23 PM
I am looking for at least a 4% pullback, it may go even lower than that, all the way down to SPX 2500.
However, if the market finds support at the SPX 2640 level and rallies over SPX 2700 then I will
load up on QQQ calls and financial stocks.
Today's candle can be interpreted as a topping process almost completed.
@RampCapitalLLC sentiment check
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:27 PM
As you might know, I track $SPX against the 9d $VIX (for +1SD Calls) and 30d $VIX (for -2SD Puts) every afternoon. Today, $SPX closed above the +1SD line for the 3rd straight day. Here's how the index did going forward after such streaks (or longer) the past 5 years.
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:33 PM
Many are quite excited about gold, recently. GOLD up, SPX UP, CRUDE UP, all at the same time!
$$ up also? haven't looked at forex today.
Gold has had quite a run. In a typical year (as much as we can rely on "typical") it peaks right about now.
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:36 PM
The 10y/2y Treasury Spread is almost at zero (it was as low as 0.11 in Dec 2018). It to invert, right? Nope. Here's an example of a time it got even closer to 0 than right now without inverting.
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 08:53 PM
It does appear to me that the decline in October 2018 began with the A/D line at record high, see chart below, ....maybe I am not seeing properly, even with my reading glasses.
This stock-market gauge just hit an all-time high — and that’s bad news for bears
Bear markets ‘never ever’ begin when A/D line is hitting all-time highs: analyst
One widely used signal of the health of the stock market has hit an all-time high, potentially setting the stage for a further rally by U.S. equity benchmarks, say technical analysts.
The New York Stock Exchange’s advance/decline line touched an all-time high on Wednesday, as seen in the chart below from StockCharts:
Paul Schatz, the president of Heritage Capital, told MarketWatch in a phone interview that “bear markets never, ever, ever begin when the A/D line is making an all-time high.”
The Woodbridge, Connecticut-based investment manage also said the A/D line “is historically 90% accurate in predicting large-scale bear markets.”
Among technical analysts, the A/D line is the most widely used indicator measuring market breadth and represents a cumulative total of the number of stocks advancing versus the number of stocks declining. When the A/D line rises, it means that more stocks are rising than declining, and vice versa.
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:01 PM
Stocks could rally another 11% on a U.S.-China trade resolution, says analyst
Trade tensions have shaved 300 points from the S&P 500, over the past 13 months, says Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research
https://www.marketwa...lyst-2019-02-20
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:04 PM
Ha ha, this is too low, how about 35,000?
Opinion: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at the current pace, is on track to hit 30,000 in April
https://www.marketwa...pril-2019-02-20
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:05 PM
Well, it did not....
Opinion: U.S. stock market is set to fall this week, according to Elliott Wave theory
https://www.marketwa...eory-2019-02-11
Member
Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:10 PM
Just like us
There have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.
These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks typically peak somewhere between the (roughly) 70 – 100 day mark of a decline-then-rally cycle. We’re at the upper end of that now, and it’s relatively rare to see a continued sustained rally after this.
A good season
The S&P 500 rallied more than 8% during Q4 earnings reporting season, which just ended. This is the best performance in more than 20 years. Other times the S&P rallied more than 5% during this time stretch, it tended to suffer losses in the weeks ahead.
Oops
It appears the AAII asset allocations that rebounded to troubling extremes was an error. The AAII blog post detailing the positions disagreed with the actual survey results and has since been fixed. Hat tip to Callum Thomas for the correction.
SPY is losing assets
Despite its price hitting a 16-week high, cumulative ETF asset flow in SPY has hit a 16-week low. The study shows weaker-than-average returns for SPY over the next month or so.
Edited by dTraderB, 20 February 2019 - 09:10 PM.
Member
Posted 21 February 2019 - 12:46 PM
A trader friend, who may soon be a former friend, Whatsapp:
"That WAS your pullback. Hope you loaded on calls!"
He's raking it in trading EURO, BONDS, and CRUDE.
