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Market Priced for Perfection, in STRONG RESISTANCE ZONE


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 06:48 AM

The market is there now SPX 2790/2810, a rally that has lost some momentum, in the strong resistance zone, pricing in Good News, and ready to zoom ahead again or drop.  I think it will Drop and Finish lower at the end of the week. 

 

OddStats @OddStats
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This is interesting. It's been 104 trading days since $SPX peaked and we're almost exactly as far below the all time high as two other major peaks were after 104 days (Jul '07 and May '15). Both ended up dropping quite a bit again; one into a bear market, the other bounced.

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8:55 AM - 24 Feb 2019

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 06:57 AM

YES, the bears are almost non-existent, the bulls are rampaging, VIX traded with a 13 handle, money is flowing in .... getting to that extreme sentiment level, but still not there:

 

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
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The smart money just keeps right on buying. In early February, their net position in index futures was on par with market lows in 2011 and 2015-16. This is extremely unusual, since they usually sell into rising markets.

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12:30 PM - 22 Feb 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 06:58 AM

Replying to @sentimentrader

Yup there will be no one left to buy and just sellers. This is actually really bearish

 

David Brady, CFA @GlobalProTrader
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Another wonderful data point to add to the following... Short interest at the lowest level since 2012 and prior to that, "2007". CTAs fully loaded on the long side. Negatively divergent higher close today from an RSI, MACD, and DSI perspective. Dump imminent?

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5:52 PM - 22 Feb 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 07:01 AM

I admit I try really hard to understand and interpret his work, but I have failed... maybe I need to put in more time in trying to understand it

 

Chris Carolan @spiralcal
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New post, "Weekly Update" on http://spiralcalendar.com .

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1:54 PM - 24 Feb 2019
 @Techs_Global
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Although #ES_F has just a bit more distance to cover, $SPY has achieved the 2-month high we have been anticipating off of the December lows. We wrote about the significance in our January 2019 edition of The Cartography Corner, linked below. https://globaltechanalysis.tonidoid.com/urll1krwb 

6:58 PM - 22 Feb 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 07:03 AM

CHINA BULL MARKET

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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This charts highlights the reason behind the recent #China rally: debt!

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3:56 AM - 25 Feb 2019
 @Schuldensuehner
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The most ridiculous chart: #China Yuan rallies in tandem w/ Shanghai Comp (on trade optimism) despite massive growth slowdown.

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1:23 AM - 25 Feb 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 07:03 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Party like it's 1999: #China stocks’ Trillion-Dollar rally pushes another index toward Bull Market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/china-s-stock-rally-propels-another-index-toward-bull-market 

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11:53 PM - 24 Feb 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 07:06 AM

McClellanOsc_484.gif

 

 

SOME EXTREME GREED, others GREED

Seven Fear & Greed Indicators How we calculate the index More »
Stock Price Breadth
Extreme Greed

The McClellan Volume Summation Index measures advancing and declining volume on the NYSE. During the last month, approximately 17.32% more of each day's volume has traded in advancing issues than in declining issues, pushing this indicator towards the upper end of its range for the last two years.

Last changed Jan 24 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 22 at 4:45pm

 
 
Stock Price Strength
Extreme Greed

The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

Last changed Jan 24 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 22 at 4:45pm

 
 
Safe Haven Demand
Extreme Greed

Stocks have outperformed bonds by 4.58 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds.

Last changed Feb 19 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 21 at 7:00pm

 
 
Put and Call Options


#8 cycletimer

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:36 AM

Yes, a rather bold move would be to purchase some index puts on the opentuis AM, which is my plan if we open at or near 2808 (basis the cash $spx)

#9 robo

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:40 AM

Watching as the move up continues......  Will the VIX hit 12ish this week or is it about to start moving up?  We shall see......

 

Good Trading!

 

The Air Is Getting Thin

The stock market’s winning streak continues.

We’re eight weeks into 2019, and we’ve seen eight straight weeks of higher stock prices. The S&P 500 is up almost 12% in less than two months. The momentum is strong. The price action is undeniably bullish. And it feels like stock prices will just keep pressing higher, forever. But, the air is getting really thin up here. Take a look at this updated chart of the S&P 500…

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


Edited by robo, 25 February 2019 - 08:46 AM.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

Yes, a rather bold move would be to purchase some index puts on the opentuis AM, which is my plan if we open at or near 2808 (basis the cash $spx)

 

 

I may consider that but want to wait for early spike up and then see how it goes....