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Bears hold edge, but NEW HIGHS more likely if.....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 04:21 PM

So, we had quite a pitched battle today with Bears holding the edge after a spirited rally.

 

ST down, IT flat, on the daily SPX at the close.

 

NEW HIGHS are possible if the SPX closes above the new swing high (today's SPX high)

 

Today's low also marked an important support level in that zone just above the 200ma.

 

Bears had several attempts to take the market down in recent weeks but they failed.

 

With today's close more than 1% above the lows, the bulls can try to rally above today's high and move it closer to SPX 2900, and then aim for new highs. 

 

HOWEVER, this will be extremely difficult UNLESS there is a strong catalyst that motivates buyers to come in at this stage of the rally.

 

The lines in the sand are drawn after today's SPX trading: high and low of today's LONG candle

 

 

53366407_10156668151310783_7216615513454

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 04:27 PM

Brown line in chart above is the VIX

 

Still no VIX daily BUY; it was almost there but then VIX dropped quite a bit from the high and invalidated that trigger.

 

HOURLY VIX buy was also invalidated after triggering earlier in the day. 

 

Today's action confirms the market is in a decisive stage & still hasn't been able to go up or down, as yet. 

 

But, for the first time in many days, the bears have struck vigorously and can take it down during the next few days. 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 04:31 PM

SPX daily closes gravitating towards this magic zone! 

 

 @ hmeisler
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SPX closes since 2/22.

That's 3 closes at 2792 and

one at 2793 2792 2796 2793 2792 2784 2802 2792

1:09 PM - 4 Mar 2019


#4 LMF

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:58 PM

I like the SPX advance decline line way up there, new ATH territory relative to 2018.  And the VIX below the 200 day MA day after day.  It's really a matter of how long the daily MACD is going to stay above zero after what happened in Q4 last year.....basically 3 straight months below zero.  It can diverge on the upside for quite a while in this mode.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 07:42 AM

I like the SPX advance decline line way up there, new ATH territory relative to 2018.  And the VIX below the 200 day MA day after day.  It's really a matter of how long the daily MACD is going to stay above zero after what happened in Q4 last year.....basically 3 straight months below zero.  It can diverge on the upside for quite a while in this mode.

 

 

Not a fan of MACD and Oversold/Overbought on longer tieframes!

 

But VIX, VXXB, Sentiment are more important, I think, and also this:

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 11:08 AM

After a relatively quiet period, it is good to get more volatility and range 

 

Hoping to notch an 800-plus points NQ day with full 8-lot positions (4-2-2)

 

Good going, so far, but after lunch hour snooze it must pick up again into the close. 

 

BULLS holding one, bears still unable to press home the advantage, it WILL be a spectacular RALLY OR DROP when this gets resolved, one way or the other. 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 11:10 AM

I want to see yesterday's low tested but....

 

I want lots of things in life and can get only some. LOL



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 12:24 PM

BULLS don/t seem to have the will or the resources to take it higher....but bears are not much better equipped, so it seems.... 

 

we may still see test of yesterday's low.... and THEN? 

 

RAPID DROP or support holds followed by a HUGE rally. 

 

Got to be patient, do ST trades, observe, and wait to pounce!



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 01:28 PM

6-point S&P range last two hours

 

IT WILL BE A HUGE MOVE

 

soon



#10 opinionated

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 01:35 PM

looks lower....   was long covered break even...

 

now it will rocket higher....

 

my track record.