Fridays surprise employment numbers, Were they a surprise? Should they have been? I think not...
For this same reason which I will outline below I fully expect the same news on the Monday morning release of Retail Sales. (Unless manipulated) which very well may be the case. And if it is I suspect a Gap and go will play out. But actual numbers not manipulated will be a last 30 minute bar for the bears to get out. And the massive short covering to begin.
As some here know I am a Union operating engineer and have been for 40 years. Currently I am operating a Heavy Lift Bridge Crane in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Actual pic in my Photo) Every year the construction industry ramps down the third week of December and back up again after the second week in January. This year during our typical 7-14 day shut down starting the third week in December I received a call all ramp back up plans were going to be on hold until further notice. The reason was the project Blizzard and sub freezing conditions that were forecast.
I finally received that call this past Wednesday that ramp up begins this coming Monday as the forecast is showing the worst is over Now keep in mind I have quite a bit of seniority being a 40 year operator. So if I had a delayed ramp up then thousands in my State were in far worse position than I am now multiply that across the country. So instead of coming off unemployment the first week in January they begin to come off this week and next.
Have no doubt that was the reason in the employment rate taking a nose dive! And is exactly the same reason Retail Sales Monday will disappoint as well. And we will get a down draft Monday morning. But very possibly that down draft may only bring us to -1-5 points (IF) the market is up substantially because of Powell's 60 minute interview Sunday night and good news from across the pond before out open. Which in my mind is what, and how the manipulators play it.
Now I fully understand we may be just starting a major correction, Or the end to the 10 year bull market!! (Snicker) there are chart patterns that suggest that. But IMO there are just as many that say Monday They gap it down to trap final late to the party bears, Or open it flat on bad retail Sales numbers and we have a knock your face off rally. The latter is my suspected course. The powers that be already knew and will know on Bad Retail sales numbers this is just an aberration. I am seeing a test of the recent highs this week, at minimum 2795-2800
Now on what I post here I am a decent fade, which still may be the case. But wanted my friends (Both of you!!) to look at the big picture.
Mark, I am on that Crane working on the Seymore-paddock bridge on RT 75!! Give a toot as you ride by cursing those darn Construction Workers!!
A few Charts I like in this twitter feed...
Edited by opinionated, 10 March 2019 - 12:24 PM.