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ST, IT Long -- Best Q1 in 20 years followed by BIG DOWN Q2?


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#21 robo

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 01:30 PM

 

But LARRY is doing all he can to create excitement and close Q1 with a bang! 

 

White House advisor Larry Kudlow says Fed should 'immediately' cut rates

 

This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates:

 

https://www.cnbc.com...tes-report.html

 

LOL..  My system is already back on a buy signal...  It's all just noise to me Brother. However, I'm VST trading VXXB and he could cause me to break even or lose some Beer Money on my current trade "IF" he talks enough Bull crap to those that will listen. It's been many years since I had CNBS or any other channel on when I'm trading.  How many guesses did you make,  or did you read this week in the forums?  LOL...Probably 100's is my guess....  Did any of them make you money VST or MT trading? Time for lunch. Good luck if you are VST trading because it really is gambling. I'm a very good gambler and I play Black Jack!  LOL...No SLOTS!

 

I'm about even for the day so far.....  VXF is still making a lower high and I see NO BEEF!  What comes? I don't guess, but I'm back on a buy signal for now....  That could change by the close....  I don't care since I go from VXF to cash and there is NO CHARGE on my trades....  Make all the guesses you want on what will happen in 2020 and 2021... That goes for all you silly rabbits based on the current market setup... Risk/Reward is just not there for me, but trend traders just don't care!

 

Trend traders wait patiently for prices to tell them a trend has begun. Then they jump on board. If the trend fails, they exit quickly to control losses. Price tells them when to enter "and" when to exit. If the trend continues, trend traders have no predetermined profit goal. They stay with the trend until it reverses.

 

Cutting losses quickly and staying with a trend until it ends is how trend traders realize huge profits in the financial markets. The financial markets are trending "about" 80% of the time. That means trend traders are profitable 80% of the time. During the other 20% trend traders keep losses very small so that they are ready when the next trend starts.

 

This does not mean 80% of their trades are winners, just that they are in the plus column for that 80%. If you have three losing trades of 2% and one winning trade of 18% in a year, you finish with a 12% gain, even though most trades were losers. This fits the old saying, "cut your losses short and let your winners run."

 

Conclusion

 

Remember that "price" is determined by millions of investors and traders.

By using price, trend traders take advantage of the combined wisdom of millions of investors and traders to trade a successful and profitable market timing strategy.

 

Yes, it takes patience to be a successful trend trader. Yes, it takes discipline to follow the strategy and make the trades, which many times go against the prevailing wisdom. This is true of "all" winning market strategies.

But trend traders who use price to determine trends have been quietly "beating" the markets for many years. They will quietly continue to do so for many more. 

 

https://www.fibtimer..._commentary.asp


Edited by robo, 29 March 2019 - 01:38 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#22 robo

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 01:49 PM

LOL.....  NO WAY LARRY.....  Amazing!
 
 
Kudlow Calls For "Immediate" 50bps Rate-Cut - Signals Imminent Recession
picture-5.jpg?itok=LY4e264-
Fri, 03/29/2019 - 14:08
 
 
 

Just weeks ago, President Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow was bloviating about the strength and sustainability of the US economy as the cleanest dirty shirt in the world.

180822-larry-kudlow.jpg

Something appears to have scared him as today, echoing Trump's latest Fed pick Stephen Moore, Kudlow is calling for The Fed to "immediately" cut rates by 50bps.

Kudlow Calls For "Immediate" 50bps Rate-Cut - Signals Imminent Recession
 
Something appears to have scared him as today, echoing Trump's latest Fed pick Stephen Moore, Kudlow is calling for
The Fed to "immediately" cut rates by 50bps.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump: "Great Jobs Number"; Kudlow: "No Recession In Sight"
picture-5.jpg?itok=LY4e264-
Fri, 01/04/2019 - 10:03
 

Today's payrolls report absolutely crushed expectations and indicated that, contrary to fears that the trade war and government shutdown might have hurt hiring in December, the US labor market expanded at its strongest pace since February 2018 and broke above 150 million jobs for the first time ever.

So it's hardly surprising that the White House is touting the data as a major source of vindication.

President Trump chimed in on twitter after data to tout its strength, marking his first comment on economic data in months.

Trump: "Great Jobs Number"; Kudlow: "No Recession In Sight"
 

Edited by robo, 29 March 2019 - 01:57 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#23 robo

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 02:00 PM

I want to point out...  I NEVER listen to this guy....

 

Kudlow..

 

Larry Kudlow: There is no recession coming

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=SWy4nsFxyUk

 

 

Steve Keen Says U.S. Heading for 2020 Recession

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=rfWVqrPEXEo


Edited by robo, 29 March 2019 - 02:03 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#24 robo

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 03:49 PM

A few SOS today.....  

 

http://www.wsj.com/m...-moneyflow.html


Edited by robo, 29 March 2019 - 03:50 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#25 robo

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Posted 29 March 2019 - 06:45 PM

What comes first the Bear Market or the recession?   I don't care what causes the recession, the Bear Market, or any of the crazy stuff/comments/opinions that CNBS/Bloomberg/Kudlow/ or the Fed experts claim to know. I just trade the signals on the daily charts.... and there was lots of trends to trade...Up and down! Sure I get whipsawed some, but the guessers making bets on what will in in 2020 and 2021 in these forums are going to have it rough in my opinion...

 

Note my VXF chart. There was some rough months on the way to the top, but what a run.....

 

https://stockcharts....082&a=654951643

 

Have a nice weekend!


Edited by robo, 29 March 2019 - 06:54 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#26 robo

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Posted 30 March 2019 - 07:52 AM

Recession Signs Everywhere

BY JOHN MAULDIN

 MARCH 29, 2019

This month, the Federal Reserve joined its global peers by turning decisively dovish. Jerome Powell and friends haven’t just stopped tightening. Soon they will begin actively easing by reinvesting the Fed’s maturing mortgage bonds into Treasury securities. It’s not exactly “Quantitative Easing I, II, and III,” but it will have some of the same effects.

 

Why are they doing this? One theory, which I admit possibly plausible, was that Powell simply caved to Wall Street pressure. The rate hikes and QT were hitting asset prices and liquidity, much to the detriment of bankers and others to whom the Fed pays keen attention. But that doesn’t truly square with his 2018 speeches and actions. The Fed’s March 20 announcement suggests more is happening.

 

I think two other factors are driving the Fed’s thinking. One is increasing recognition of the same slowing global growth that made other central banks turn dovish in recent months. The other is the Fed’s realization that its previous course risked inverting the yield curve, which was violently turning against its fourth-quarter expectations and possibly toward recession (see chart below, courtesy of WSJ’s “Daily Shot”). That would not have looked good in the history books, hence the backtracking.

 

 

https://www.mauldine...ontlinethoughts

 

Tracking....improved Friday.

 

https://www.treasury...aspx?data=yield


Edited by robo, 30 March 2019 - 07:57 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#27 robo

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Posted 30 March 2019 - 07:59 AM

There has been an increase in volatility over the past two weeks for stocks.

aDbmOK.png

Friday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle. The current cycle high of day 9 sets up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. Stocks remain firmly in a daily uptrend but the clustering of Selling on Strength days is a warning signal of an approaching intermediate cycle decline.

 

https://likesmoneycy...weekend-report/


“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#28 robo

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Posted 30 March 2019 - 08:13 AM

D23QEsdUwAARPbD.png

 

https://twitter.com/elerianm

 

 

Alternative facts from POTUS: "the world is slowing, but we're not slowing". The facts – real GDP growth: 4.2% (Q2), 3.4% (Q3), 2.2% (Q4), 1% (current).

 

https://twitter.com/...uyRosie?lang=en

 

 

Top search results for yield curve show an interesting consensus (at least among sites with high SEO).

D2vv6VFW0AAXKBJ.png

 

 

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

 

Traders have moved into VIX call options and volatility ETFs. In the sense that extreme positions tend to lead to moves in their direction, this is the smart money.

 

D2rYYkdWsAEyrTy.png


Edited by robo, 30 March 2019 - 08:19 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore