Jump to content



Photo

Economy Slowing Down AT the Time Market Making Record High


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#11 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 18,581 posts

Posted 21 December 2006 - 05:57 PM

There's a relationship, all right. When folks are all gloom and doom, usually you'll see prices higher. Until we start seeing some real rosy economic data and projections, we probably don't have to worry about the longer-term prospects for the stock market. "People buy at important tops for long-term reasons."
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter

#12 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,501 posts

Posted 22 December 2006 - 12:51 AM

There's a relationship, all right. When folks are all gloom and doom, usually you'll see prices higher. Until we start seeing some real rosy economic data and projections, we probably don't have to worry about the longer-term prospects for the stock market.

"People buy at important tops for long-term reasons."


Yes Mark, but what about this?

Posted Image

#13 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 18,581 posts

Posted 22 December 2006 - 08:42 AM

I have adequate optimism for intermediate term decline, but long term, quite simply, he's wrong. It's probably an artifact of trying to quantify all the sentiment into a simple linear scale--in fact, I don't know Jason's actual opinion on the matter. The sentiment data that I study don't show NEARLY enough optimism for any sort of important long-term top. The signature is not there. Sure, a 10% decline might FEEL important, but that's just a correction. We USED to get them all the time. Look forward to them, in fact. To be clear, a long term investor should have zero concern of a major decline here based upon either sentiment or trend. An intermediate-term trader should have considerable concern, but as yet no shorting is indicated.
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter