10 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

I still think that gap on the Qs will fill (did not fill today). CES frenzy is likely the reason the Qs stayed up, and it will likely give it some opportunity to gap up on monday. Then I expect it to fill monday's gap and head lower. Breadth was horrible today, and Qs kept marching on. I'm not sure yet, but my guess is its probably just as bad for NDX only breadth.

[dcengr]

This is the 1946 model, which predicts a fast and furious slide next 2 weeks heading down into Dow 12,000 before da bottom.

36 model also predicts down, but not as far down as this, and is a lesser slide.

No COT report today due to reduced trading, so can't tell where the large traders are. Guess is they're unloading still and will likely finish up in 2 weeks when many will be short. Then comes the scorch up on breadth problems is my guess.

[.Blizzard]

I think just the opposite. We may gap down into 1410/1405 area (ESH7) then up for the rest of the day till tuesday

[dcengr]

I think just the opposite.

We may gap down into 1410/1405 area (ESH7) then up for the rest of the day till tuesday

Guessing is free, but useless unless you have a reason why it will unfold that way.

As I explained, the gap up is to close today's gap. And following the breadth, sentiment, and 36, 46 models, I'm still seeing multi week downslide, hence why I predict more down for monday. So I gave at least a madness to my guesses.

[dcengr]

Just to be complete, the DJT and DJU for 46... looks a bit similar too.

[dcengr]

Btw, in my blog, I posted the above 3 charts taken out to 2000 trade dates instead of 1000 trade dates as shown for DJI, DJT, DJU. The match is... surprisingly good for all 3.

[hamakua]

dcengr....I really like your comparison charts, do you generate those or do are they available from a website ? Thanks

[dcengr]

dcengr....I really like your comparison charts, do you generate those or do are they available from a website ?

Thanks

I generate them using Excel.

[hamakua]

very nice work. Thanks for your feedback.

[dcengr]

very nice work.

Thanks for your feedback.

Np.

I'm guessing someone wrote some software to do this automatically, so I'll look for that as well.

I'm still interested in getting a copy of Paul Tudor Jones DVD where more of his methods are described. I'm sure he uses more than just price correlations to map direction... I do know for a fact he uses sentiment (he subscribes to practically all newsletters out there).

He does use fundamentals, but I'm not sure how...