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my current read

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#1 greenie



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Posted 22 January 2007 - 08:36 PM

1. IT - I divide the IT condition of the market in four categories - a) strong upward move, B) chop near the top while turning down, c) strong downward move, d) chop near the bottom while turning up. I monitor a set of internals (NAA50R, NAHGH, NALOW, NAMO, NASI) and ratios (NDX:SPX, RUO:RLV) to get a feel for IT. Right now, my best guess is we are in b, turning into c. 2. ST - short term, we may be at a bottom. I monitor NAA50R, NAHGH, NALOW w.r.t. their 10EMA. In (B) and (d), if they are too far away from 10EMA, market reverses. On the other hand, in (a) or © the market can remain oversold or overbought for longer than expected. The evidences for ST bottom are - (i) NAA50R, NAHGH, NAMO, NALOW are far away from 10EMA and turning. (ii) sentimentrader ST bearishness rises. (iii) VXN opened gap today that has not been taken care of. However, the caveat mentioned above remains. Therefore, I am holding on to my previous NDX shorts from early last week (trade not mentioned here), but not adding any more to get max-leveraged. Any pop that resets the internals will get me max-lev. Any pop that shows that the internals and NDX:SPX are bottoming will get me out of short.
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#2 SemiBizz


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Posted 22 January 2007 - 08:57 PM


The Nasdaq is in a sideways consolidation pattern.. The two most important trading days of the recent period are 11/27 and 1/3. The Nasdaq rose on fainter and fainter volume and then we had huge volume off the top. Presently we are working our way to test that low of 1/3 - 2394. The decline in volume on the way down today is a tip that we're probably going to try to retest the top of that 1/3 candle(2454) on a bullish spring before we finish the move down under that 1/3 doji. I see 2350 near term after that. So Up, Down, and Down. Tomorrow's volume should be stronger than today, and that's been bearish of late. We may see a gap and crap.

Overall, what we are dealing with is rationalizing what happened on the 1/3/2001 all time high volume day, when interest rates were cut a Full 1%. The trading range was 2251 - 2618, closing on the high, we are in that trading band presently.


Gann would have chuckled this year on 1/3/2007 looking at that high volume doji type of day. He was big on anniversary dates.

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 January 2007 - 09:05 PM.

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