Posted 23 January 2007 - 05:13 PM
Posted 23 January 2007 - 05:46 PM
of May 06 dancing in my head, or maybe it was the burrito i ate last night , gold on a tear, dow topping out, weak ndx, its probably nothing.....
Just two weeks early on the feeling.
Posted 23 January 2007 - 08:36 PM
Posted 23 January 2007 - 09:44 PM
well, something sure feels funny here, not your average pullback so far, although ndx showing some signs of bottom in the short term around 1760 looking at trinq and such, but dow/spx not giving any buy signals and no sign of hedging from the institutions so far, maybe a 200pt down day in the dow can change the picture..
I see too many indications that the market is about to break down significantly for the IT timeframe, I will short any rally upward from here, still gradually up to SPX 1460 limit, but I will not participate in any of the rallies in the long side other than the small daytrades. Now, to name a few of the major indications;
1. Enormous decline in the open interest to the levels below 2005 winter despite the rising prices.
2. The effect of the high interest rates that are now showing up in the credit growth rate, this is the lack of liquidity and evident from the USD.
3. The looming 4.5yr cyclical nested lows until fall.
4. The lack of price momentum since Dec and multiple price divergences since last summer in between the market caps and sectors.
5. Relatively too bullish long(er) term sentiment.