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One cold night in New York


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#1 2cents

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 06:41 AM

oil that is, Texas T, fools gold that is, to quote the Beverly Hillbillies. Just when things were so good mother nature had to spoil the party. Someone made a comment a few weeks ago that the temperature in New York was the only futures indicator for oil as far as traders were concerned. The Mid West didn't exist to traders. Energy is now leading again and I guess that's good for the markets. Personally I'm still very short Semis and Internets, long gold, and buying more drillers. I take a look at the end of the day rather than watch all day. With all this talk about world liquidity and other reasons the markets can't go down, I feel very comfortable on the short side. The summation is telling the story. We'll see NASDAQ 1900 before 2600 IMHO. 2 1/2 cents
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#2 hiker

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 07:04 AM

good morning 2cents how are you? when you have time, can you please post more about what chart vision you have or indicators that reveal to you the NAZ is more likely to go down vs. going up? the more likely is the heart of such a trade, and I am only asking you so I can better understand your methods for determining such a trade direction right now....you must realize I have seen you positon short and long over the last 3 years in several sectors, and have made some great calls. just wondering what chart analysis or other methods you are using right now to make this call and position with max short within the framework of more likely to go down than go up? also wondering what price level on a weekly or monthly close for the Naz or semis would make you reconsider. I realize the SOX is only 19 stocks..much different picture than the entire Naz, so if you could direct your explanation for your trade direction to the area of greater interest to you? I have read every post of yours for 3 years and just want to understand more deeply what your vision is. no need to reply at all...just asking out of interest...steve ps..I have noted your long term charts from prior posts showing the resistance trendlines and the price channels. Just wondering how you know where price is likely to go next within the price channel? I am a simple trader..postioned heavily during the last 2 years in a life insurance company, REIT's, a doughnut company, uranium stocks, and DVY, etc....I seem to be able to feel comfortable with my predictions for simple things...I am mostly flat again now in my trading acct. and somewhat flat in my core acct....all relative to my heavy positioning the last 3 years...I do think the NDX could go up to levels shown by Teaparty that no one can possibly consider at this time...I say could> many good short term opportunities for swing trading these days....that do not require predictions such as you are making.

Edited by hiker, 24 January 2007 - 07:17 AM.


#3 hiker

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 07:20 AM

good price action in DVN, SLB, GSF, RIG lately....am long all of these..note DVN is at an impt price level now

#4 2cents

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 09:30 AM

[ many good short term opportunities for swing trading these days....that do not require predictions such as you are making. [/quote] Hiker Thanks for the comments. My stockcharts.com seems to be down right now so I can't access my charts so it's a little difficult to show my trends. I will say that I tend to break the index down into sectors and judge the collective. The semis, by proxy have been failing for more than a year. The individual sectors in order of design to equipment installation have broken down one by one in the order they should. Even the strongest sectors such as wireless can not make new highs. Many of the such as ADI or MXIM are still down more than 30% from there highs. BRCM and MRVL from the wireless networking group have also broken down and even TXN, the blue chip of the group is still off 20% and trending lower. No need to explain the PC related stocks. You only have to look at INTC and AMD (AMD was my most profitable short this year from 41 to 17.50) The SOX have been pounding the support area of 450 for some time and I expect it to finally break through after all the earnings are out. This explains 19% of the NDX in it's raw representation. But moreover it shows the pressure from customers being squeezed by margin erosion due to decline sales even in the consumer electronic market. I've said in the past that when we develope more toys than productivity tools we're in trouble. The semis are the canary in the mind. Even when it comes to China and India, American semi companies are now having to compete with local developers, who in turn supply the computer manufactures there, who are the largest in the world. These companies are not listed on the NDX. Next is the Internet sector or another 8% of the NDX. GOOG is the only one out of the group that has made new highs. AMZN, EBAY, YHOO, and most others have been cut in half and are still long term trenders lower on any chart. The bricks and mortor retailers are showing their strength, so while the competition heats up in the retail sector, web margins go down. These are some of the senarios I look for. There are numerous examples of the same nature and the charts of the individual sectors show the story, as does the longer term summation. Hope that helps. Good choice on your longs for the past 3 years.
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#5 hiker

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 10:14 AM

thanks, 2c. good info....much appreciated.