Aire, I was thinking the same thing. We might see a short term increase in volatility, lol.
I was looking at the 40wk halfspan/fullspan spx chart and we are 1 wk from a cross. Looks to me like 1480 +/- 26pts possible target if you use the june lowest low which might be reasonable given the incredible strength shown by spx since then. We are already in the window of that target. Even more remarkable is that your Hurst techniques projected 1490 +/- 24 points which you posted as far back as Dec 15th, 2006.( http://www.investors...age_id=15573103 ) and we have been within 8 points of piercing that range. Congrats on that.
Now as we get closer to the targets and we have the 4.5yr, 80wk, 20wk, and 10wk cycles all down and the 40wk close to topping, the big questions are:
1. do you take profits as the targets are approached or hit or do you still ride it hoping for overshoots with VTL and fld breaks for stops, and
2. do you think about shorting into this coming 20wk low due now in about 4 wks.
It is, indeed, going to get interesting...
Echo
1. i would use either vtls or fld breaks. strong sigma el suggests possible overshoot.
2. yes, if an fld cascade sets up. i do think we might make a higher high in the final 20 wk cycle, so i don't have major wood for shorting yet.
i should also add that i'd like to see some weakness set up in that INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system to suggest it's time for shorting.
Edited by airedale88, 18 February 2007 - 08:35 AM.