It Could Gap Up Tomorrow on Good GDP
Started by
redfoliage2
, Feb 26 2007 03:36 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
redfoliage2
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Posted 26 February 2007 - 03:36 PM
Shorts need to be careful at this point.
#2
jawndissedi
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Posted 26 February 2007 - 04:06 PM
You think Easy Al didn't have the number before he made his "possible recession" call?Shorts need to be careful at this point.
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.
#3
briarberry
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Posted 26 February 2007 - 04:22 PM
The revised GDP figure, should be good for those of us who are hoping for lower rates...
John Maudlin
Only a few weeks ago, we were told that the GDP for the fourth quarter was 3.4%, which is rather robust. I must admit I was taken somewhat aback by that number, as it did not square with the rest of what I was seeing. But you have to be ready to admit you are wrong when you are. Only, we find the data is not as robust as first thought.
The first estimate of GDP growth is done on a basis of estimates of inventory and productivity, among other things. It turns out reducing inventories were the basis of much of the growth estimate. Reducing inventories is not the same as increased production. JP Morgan estimates GDP may have been overstated by as much as 1%, and we will see that official number revised downward in the next few months.
In the advance report, fourth quarter real GDP jumped to an annualized 3.5 percent from the 2.0 percent pace in the third quarter. However, in the weeks since the advance report, some of the "missing but assumed" data have come in on the weak side - notably for inventories and some investment components. Markets are expecting a bigger than usual revision to the growth rate and on the down side.
http://www.nasdaq.co...y/02/index.html
Merrill Lynch North American economist David Rosenberg warned that the picture isn’t quite as benign (improved growth and low inflation), as the market’s initial reaction to the Fed’s statement indicates.
He claims the drop in oil prices in the December quarter, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. trade deficit, added 1.6% to the fourth quarter GDP number. Without that drop in oil prices, fourth quarter GDP growth would have only been 1.9%, which is more in line with previous forecasts of a still slowing economy. Rosenberg also says that the lower energy costs in the December quarter helped consumer spending jump 4.4% in that quarter, but warns that so far this quarter oil prices are back to the upside. And winter has finally arrived in the U.S., so the upside reversal in natural gas prices has been even more dramatic than the increase in oil prices.
Rosenberg also notes that the biggest surge in government defense spending since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 took place in the December quarter, and added 0.7% to the reported GDP growth of 3.5%. He believes that aberration, and the end of the decline in oil prices, will result in a return to sickly GDP numbers going forward.
John Maudlin
Only a few weeks ago, we were told that the GDP for the fourth quarter was 3.4%, which is rather robust. I must admit I was taken somewhat aback by that number, as it did not square with the rest of what I was seeing. But you have to be ready to admit you are wrong when you are. Only, we find the data is not as robust as first thought.
The first estimate of GDP growth is done on a basis of estimates of inventory and productivity, among other things. It turns out reducing inventories were the basis of much of the growth estimate. Reducing inventories is not the same as increased production. JP Morgan estimates GDP may have been overstated by as much as 1%, and we will see that official number revised downward in the next few months.
In the advance report, fourth quarter real GDP jumped to an annualized 3.5 percent from the 2.0 percent pace in the third quarter. However, in the weeks since the advance report, some of the "missing but assumed" data have come in on the weak side - notably for inventories and some investment components. Markets are expecting a bigger than usual revision to the growth rate and on the down side.
http://www.nasdaq.co...y/02/index.html
Merrill Lynch North American economist David Rosenberg warned that the picture isn’t quite as benign (improved growth and low inflation), as the market’s initial reaction to the Fed’s statement indicates.
He claims the drop in oil prices in the December quarter, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. trade deficit, added 1.6% to the fourth quarter GDP number. Without that drop in oil prices, fourth quarter GDP growth would have only been 1.9%, which is more in line with previous forecasts of a still slowing economy. Rosenberg also says that the lower energy costs in the December quarter helped consumer spending jump 4.4% in that quarter, but warns that so far this quarter oil prices are back to the upside. And winter has finally arrived in the U.S., so the upside reversal in natural gas prices has been even more dramatic than the increase in oil prices.
Rosenberg also notes that the biggest surge in government defense spending since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 took place in the December quarter, and added 0.7% to the reported GDP growth of 3.5%. He believes that aberration, and the end of the decline in oil prices, will result in a return to sickly GDP numbers going forward.
#4
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 26 February 2007 - 04:33 PM
gdp is wed. isn't it?
#6
Mr Dev
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Posted 26 February 2007 - 04:55 PM
Shorts need to be careful at this point.
Do you play News because there is plenty tomorrow!
And remember News is best used short term before more News becomes the focus.
If you've played the markets for long enough you probably know that when we get the CC- #s the market is
magically pushed one way for the morning and the other by the close. Usually !
If you are already long and can handle some quick losses without sweating and exiting,
then you would want to hope for a bad CC-#. Know what I mean?
Understanding how to play News is one thing understanding when your News comes out is another thing.
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
[Bullet] 7:45 ET
Durable Goods Orders
[Consensus] [Star] 8:30 ET
Redbook
[Bullet] 8:55 ET
Consumer Confidence
[Report] [Bullet] 10:00 ET
Existing Home Sales
[Report] [Bullet] 10:00 ET
Good luck
Edited by Mr Dev, 26 February 2007 - 05:00 PM.
.. .. ..
Mr Dev
......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!
#7
redfoliage2
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Posted 27 February 2007 - 08:42 AM
Oops. I swear I did not get GDP numbers one day earlier than the offical announcement.
