Nasdaq Composite - View from 100,000 ft.
#1
Posted 03 March 2007 - 11:45 AM
Well, look at the bright side. We still have another 100+ pts down on Nasdaq to 2251. 2251 is roughly a .50 of this entire move off the latest bottom.
2251 is the low of that fateful day long before 911 on January 3, 2001. The high was 2618... that was the day the Feds had to give up their silly denial game and lower rates a FULL ONE PERCENT...
This entire exercise is a rationalization of that single trading day. Here we are more than 6 years later and we still can't get back over that high... and what is 2618 about?... it's about a .50 retracement off the high of Nasdaq in March 2000...
The plain truth is this... If we can't get back over the .50 level of the history of Nasdaq. There's nothing else to do here but get short and stay short.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#2
Posted 03 March 2007 - 12:57 PM
#3
Posted 03 March 2007 - 01:23 PM
I do not claim to have your technical know how but if this is still a bull market do you really expect to see nasdaq break through this level the first time it hits it? I am not a bull or a bear. This can easily be a good retracement for the nasdaq before it goes back up to try to break this resistance line. Even if we are now in a bear market I would be suprised if nasdaq only tries one time to break through this area and just gives up here. Time will tell. Short term we are very oversold and I expect a bounce.How strong we bounce will tell me how much lower we go before we hit bottom.
Dennis
Ultimately, all that matters is earnings. Mkt has had this tremendous run b/c of the suprise in corp profits in the face of all this risk out there.
Look at the comeback Dell had Friday. Closed higher in the face of the selloff. Consolidation will continue and large caps will benefit.
I think we'll see Naz 2600 before 2300.
#4
Posted 03 March 2007 - 01:26 PM
Edited by SemiBizz, 03 March 2007 - 01:28 PM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#5
Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:00 PM
#6
Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:04 PM
This entire exercise is a rationalization of that single trading day. Here we are more than 6 years later and we still can't get back over that high... and what is 2618 about?... it's about a .50 retracement off the high of Nasdaq in March 2000...
Here's a view from 300,000 ft I found over at Tim Knight's blog. His chart shows we've yet to make it to 38.2% at 2645.67.