64 replies to this topic

[vitaminm]

GSPC/still in red zone but how long?

http://finance.yahoo...PC&am...0&a=&c=

[tuffy88]

The big drop in prices yesterday morning undercut the low on Day 1(March 6) of the rally attempt, thus aborting the attempted rally. However the reversal and move up with heavier volume in the afternoon made yesterday(March 14) Day 1 of a new rally attempt. Now again waiting for a follow through day on day 4 or later to signal a new uptrend. May or may not come before the low of yesterdays Day 1 rally attempt is undercut. If prices fall below yesterdays low then this rally attempt will be aborted too. New uptrend will not begin until after the follow through day. For now funds in my trading account remain in SHY( I-shares 1-3 year treasury ETF where they have been since the end of the last uptrend on Febuary 27. A new uptrend will come. Maybe as early as next Monday(day 4 of current rally attempt). Maybe not for weeks or months. I don't know and don't believe anyone else does either. So now I just sit, watch, and wait. Charles

[tuffy88]

Nice pop today in price, but not enough of one to be a follow-through day. And volume was quite a bit below Friday's. Not nearly enough to be a follow-through day. So will continue to watch and wait. A follow-through day is coming, but no one knows when it will be. Charles

[tuffy88]

Today was a follow through day. Nasdaq up over 1.7% on higher volume than previous day. Will buy SPY & QQQQ tomorrow. Will post tomorrow price paid. Charles

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks Charles. I was actually thinking of you during the rally today. I was guessing this rally would qualify as a follow thru. Thank you very much for keeping us informed. Good trading! Roger

[esther231]

I agree. Much thanks for the update.

[tuffy88]

Market is in a new uptrend. Just got confirmation of my buy orders for SPY(bought at $143.12) and QQQQ(bought at $44.18). I purchased 1/2 of the position I want on both SPY and QQQQ. Will purchase the other 1/2 after the next follow through day OR when the stocks in the IBD 100 start to break out of bases. Whichever comes first. Will exit position on 4 or 5 distribution days within any 4 week period OR if the low of Day 1 of the rally is undercut. The trading account is 20% our total portfolio. In a downtrend it is 50-50 stock-bonds index funds. That includes the 20% trading account in SHY(I-shares 1-3 year treasury, In an uptrend move 20% (trading account) to SPY & QQQQ. First 10% moved this morning, making our portfolio 60-40 stock-bond at this time. When the conditions as stated above are right will buy the other 10% SPY & QQQQ making account 70-30 stock-bond. Thus the accounts move from 50-50 stock-bonds in a downtrend, first to 60-40 stock-bonds. Then to 70-30 stock-bonds in an uptrend. That is the idea. The accounts are my rollover IRA, my wife's rollover IRA, and a taxable account. All the trading account is in my rollover IRA, so no tax considerations involved. At least that is the idea. Has worked pretty well for 4 years. Of course that says nothing about the future. And of course this is no way a recombindation for anyone to do anythinfg. Charles

[vitaminm]

GSPC/in green zone since last 3 days/simple trading

http://finance.yahoo...PC&am...0&a=&c=

[esther231]

Tuffy, in your system, how many times were you stopped out due to distribution days vs how many times were you stopped due to your stop loss? What percentage are you using for stop loss? 7% I think but I'm not sure.

[esther231]

Tuffy, with your trading, how many times were you stopped out due to distribution days vs the stop loss you use? I seem to remember you using 7% but I'm not sure. Much thanks.