39 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I can assure you that the Cash always takes precedence. The futures and options contracts are only short term instruments... and short term signals always have the highest degree of error...

It's silly to think that the options and futures market predict the cash market. The SPX cash index is a compilation of individual stocks prices and volumes. I suppose you were thinking about the SPY. No way do the futures drive that huge underlying set of stocks in the index.

WRONG!!!!!

IC, you can do better than that! Even if you're nursing a hangover from the holiday!

BTW, I and others say that there's a reason why they're called "Futures". Furrhermore, anyone who traded through the crash of 87 can tell you that futures indeed DO drive a huge underlying set of stocks.

It's trivially simple, actually, and it doesn't take that much money. Always remember that prices are set at the margin. Those who were worrying about the "Japanese owning America" bugaboo based upon the value of their realestate failed to grasp that. One share sale doesn't represent the price of the entire underlying.

Mark


We are short from 152250 and are now targetting 151375. Snugging stop down too. I missed my target by a point, so now I'm just hoping to be flat at the close with a profit.

I hope folks learned from this little bit of intra-day discussion. It's in the tradition of Porkloin's demo's of E-wave day trading back in the 90's.

Mark

[SemiBizz]

1509 was not tested in the cash market, what was the low on the futures? If you post me a 30 day hourly including today's volumes I will give you the outlook.

[Mtrader]

Straight up from here.

[The End]

1509 was not tested in the cash market, what was the low on the futures? If you post me a 30 day hourly including today's volumes I will give you the outlook.

1514.30

http://online.wsj.co...0....%20-%20cme

[OEXCHAOS]

1509 was not tested in the cash market, what was the low on the futures? If you post me a 30 day hourly including today's volumes I will give you the outlook.

131425 was the low of today. There was some pretty good volume around there.

My prognosis is that the downside here is doubtful, though a test of today's lows is possible, based upon the 5' chart.

[SemiBizz]

Well, while the last 2 hours here was a bearish upthrust... there was a stealth sign of strength. Looking at the previous lows from Friday, on stronger volume we were unable to test those very light volume lows on the hourly chart... 1509 could still be tested, but it has to get through 1511 first, and that doesn't look like an easy task, judging from today's cash index action. For now the volume off the top is more compelling than the test of the 1509 spike. So barring any overnight catastrophes, this thing should move back up to that 1530 area short term per the still intact uptrend... even if it is only to test it and give it up.. It is a bearish upthrust on the Daily Cash today as well...BUT, we closed over Friday's high. So another indication that we'll go higher... And No, I do not agree that the futures rule the cash... If they did, we would have tested that 1509 today...

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 May 2007 - 03:28 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I disagree. The futures are where the directional money goes (shorter-term). And my read of the volume says that the lows were iffy. We got weakness, but not a ton. Fair enough. But I saw nothing at all useful in the cash data, either way. One heads up, the chart I posted was pre 4:00. There was some more volume in the run-off. Significantly more. Next time we get a nice set up, if I'm around, we'll try this exercise again. Mark

[SemiBizz]

This chart is also consistent with 1530 test...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



You can see the stealth sign of strength, with greater volume unable to penetrate Friday's light volume low... and on this chart a quality of volume move has started off today's low... My best guess is gap up tomorrow.

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 May 2007 - 03:43 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

That's a good insight on the stealth sign of strength. In this market, you have to look for those and respect them. The seasonal should pull this thing up tomorrow, though early weakness is still a possibility. After that, the odds of much weakness get longer and longer until next week. Mark

[SemiBizz]

I can say this with complete confidence since I know what I know about volume attracting price. There are two layers of support on the SPX from the last day of extreme volume (all time high volume day) The high of 1450 and the low of 1390 from 2/27. The only thing that can alter the present course is for a 4B+ volume day with a higher high. Summer is here, although we'll have fair volume in June, July will be light under normal circumstances. So while this 3 month long upthrust can continue on light volume eventually we're going to retest at least the 1450... The thing about these upthrusts is we never know which day support is going to collapse like it did on 2/27. Looking over to the left the previous high volume of 11/30 is the key to understanding this - the upthrust lasted about 3 months as well, didn't it. So this 3 month upthrust is ripe tool Oh and by the way, we broke the 11/30 low on more volume on 2/27, consistent with another test as well....

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 May 2007 - 04:55 PM.