35 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

maybe.....but I don't think so at this point.....it's a rate game for the time being until TNX tops out.

Q's hit my target. fwiw...if the count is right...we've topped

Bought my next batch of puts when Q's hit your 48.52 target(On the nose!). Bought QQQSV at .40, and QQQTU at .52. Risk seems right for reward, right here.

At least you can put a break even stop on...employment report tomorrow....maybe we get that pop semi is talking about....not much of a "throwover" on the q's ...may need higher.....TWT



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX...&listNum=-2

[arbman]

NDX = APPL, GOOG and CSCO at the moment. INTC and ORCL, CMCSA are hanging in there, the other giants MSFT, DELL, QCOM, AMGN are not doing well. The breath is negative and of course the index is UP!

that's why I decided to sit this out and wait for my indicators to turn down...

Hopefully the entire decline will not be stuffed into one day like Feb 27th...

[qqqqtrdr]

Well, of course a nasty downturn is setting up... that's why I decided to sit this out and wait for my indicators to turn down... so far they haven't, and all that will happen if we go down here on light volume is another big thrust up... too many bears still out there...

Because of the large number of bears and high average CBOE Put/Call Ratio in my formulas this is keeping me bullish on the market. I feel we will continue to head higher until the bears throw in the towel. I also have a formula that if the market moves up too fast it is bearish, but so far we keep trudging steadily higher. This is bullish......

Barry

[arbman]

Software, internet, wireless and semis are all negative today, but NDX is higher because of only a few stocks on the index. They are trying to keep these few higher until the other issues turn...

[SemiBizz]

I am just not that bearish right here... I think there are a lot of postives being overlooked. I think they will be buying the earnings mystery into next week... In my regular work, I can tell you that private investment is strong. All four of the technology startups I'm presently working with are atrracting plenty of potential funding.

[arbman]

From investment point of view, the long term is probably OK, for the short term the rates are still rising and the stocks need to give a little deeper discount to justify for a long term hold, imho. USD is still sinking, this is inflation...

[SemiBizz]

.382=2630 .50 = 2619 You know the Fed is trying very hard to convince the markets here that interest rates are going higher... Listen to what the guys in Asia and Europe are saying... expecting 2 rate cuts by end of year.

Edited by SemiBizz, 05 July 2007 - 11:34 AM.

[arbman]

The earnings growth is slowing, the higher rates mean here more discount for the stocks, the question is whether the (long term) rates are done for the next few months at least. The credit spreads increased the whole month, the prices are yet to correct, I would think a lot of dumb money trying to burn cash. The rates should go higher a bit more... If the Fed can manage to control the liquidity out there, the rates should stabilize and then the housing will be probably less crashy too. I am watching the DJR (ETF: IYR) for any rate clues, it will be the best indicator, imho...

Edited by kisacik, 05 July 2007 - 11:46 AM.

[ogm]

[quote name='SemiBizz' date='Jul 5 2007, 12:34 PM' post='297637'


You know the Fed is trying very hard to convince the markets here that interest rates are going higher... Listen to what the guys in Asia and Europe are saying... expecting 2 rate cuts by end of year.
[/quote]


Rates aren't going higher because of the Fed. Rates are going higher because of the depreciating currency, and high account deficits and huge budget whole.
Rates are going higher because the US government is issuing more paper then the rest of the world is willing to buy at this point. A lot of the world banks have already said they are going to diversify out of dollar reserves. China were outright sellers of the US treasuries last quarter.

Its the supply and demand situation. More supply then demand at this stage of the game.
Countries with reasonable interest rates and appreciating currency are a better proposition. Like UK or EU.

Besides there is general pressure in the rest of the world on the interest rates.

The US treasury market is the largest and most liquid market in the world. Even the Fed can't manipulate it.

[SemiBizz]

Let's see who's who here.. the SOXX just made a new high on the day...