31 replies to this topic

[KnowNuttin2]

and shorts are winning here! congrats!

However did you get weeks & years backwards?
2 years ago SPX was around 1290. A few weeks ago in Oct 2007 it was at all time high
around 1555. 5+ years ago it was under 800.

So, we have had 5 years of bull market followed by a few weeks of bear?
What am I missing here?

If this is a genuine all leather bear market, it should retrace atleast 50% of the
last bull market move from 775 to 1555 which translates into SPX 1165 aprox.
Otherwise it is just a correction in a long term bull market. Only time will tell.

When we get down 20+% CNBS will tell us we're in a bear mtk. Thats when we'll spend the next few months ralling. I don't play the bull or bear mkt game. And I'm only competeing against myself to be the best trader i can be. AND for me if stocks or indices are below their 200day averages then i play them bear.

[NAV]

"genuine" is the exact word to describe it.. why? with all derivative and hedge hog army, it is gonna be something quite unique... I dont want to call it a crash but it is also suggested by many studies....

regarding my target... well you all know what i had in mind for the last 9 months... there is a gap at 1035

You are an eternal optimist. Good luck !

If it happens in 2008, you da MAN !

http://www.traders-t...?...110&hl=1035

yes that was for the Feb 27 2007 crash where most of you filled your diapers for a few days

I am buying this today

[KnowNuttin2]

[quote name='NAV' date='Jan 15 2008, 01:49 PM' post='343745']
[quote name='A-ha' post='343736' date='Jan 15 2008, 02:23 PM']
[quote name='NAV' post='343735' date='Jan 15 2008, 01:15 PM']
[quote name='A-ha' post='343733' date='Jan 15 2008, 02:03 PM']
"genuine" is the exact word to describe it.. why? with all derivative and hedge hog army, it is gonna be something quite unique... I dont want to call it a crash but it is also suggested by many studies....

regarding my target... well you all know what i had in mind for the last 9 months... there is a gap at 1035
[/quote]

You are an eternal optimist. Good luck !

If it happens in 2008, you da MAN !

http://www.traders-t...?...110&hl=1035


yes that was for the Feb 27 2007 crash where most of you filled your diapers for a few days
[/quote]


I am buying this today


[/quote]

Be sure to spread it allll overrr yourrrr BODY.

[milbank]

"genuine" is the exact word to describe it.. why? with all derivative and hedge hog army, it is gonna be something quite unique... I dont want to call it a crash but it is also suggested by many studies....

regarding my target... well you all know what i had in mind for the last 9 months... there is a gap at 1035

I wouldn't be surprised by the number. You and that flux capacitator are usually always right on. I look forward to your takes but, I think it's going to be a bear a whole lot longer than two weeks. The debt issues are too big and spread out all over the economy to begin and end so quickly.

When we get down 20+% CNBS will tell us we're in a bear mtk. Thats when we'll spend the next few months ralling. I don't play the bull or bear mkt game. And I'm only competeing against myself to be the best trader i can be. AND for me if stocks or indices are below their 200day averages then i play them bear.

In the summer I hook the PC's up on a large table in the shade near the pool and whether the my stocks or the indices are below the 200 day moving average or not... I play them bare.

Edited by milbank, 15 January 2008 - 03:18 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

This would be a gift however, I suspect the crash would not be the low as we have witnessed and continue to witness no fear. This better happen in increments of 500 dow points cause 200 ain't doing a thing for "real fear". I would assume that most would buy that ! Of course, if 87 is any guide then one would wait. But, of course that depends on your risk appetite.

No fear, eh?

Just how high does a $-weighted P/C ratio have to get to indicate some "real" fear?

4.35:1 on the SPX and 3.73:1 on the OEX is pretty significant, I'd say.

Mark

[skyymaster]

This would be a gift however, I suspect the crash would not be the low as we have witnessed and continue to witness no fear. This better happen in increments of 500 dow points cause 200 ain't doing a thing for "real fear". I would assume that most would buy that ! Of course, if 87 is any guide then one would wait. But, of course that depends on your risk appetite.

No fear, eh?

Just how high does a $-weighted P/C ratio have to get to indicate some "real" fear?

4.35:1 on the SPX and 3.73:1 on the OEX is pretty significant, I'd say.

Mark

Mark, thanks for your input. I am looking at several others besides vix. Not "feeling" anything in terms of fear. Also, just look at volume. Where is the washout? Now, I do show more bearish posts and that is a start but the real fear IMHO is not there.

Mark, just saw INTC print, maybe we will see some real fear tommorrow. LOL

Edited by skyymaster, 15 January 2008 - 04:23 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

The When the lows were taken out, that says "problemo". We need some real panic selling UNLESS we get an extra large and/or surprise rate cut. Frankly, I was thinking that was in the cards and it may still be, but I don't think Ben has the first clue about getting and keeping the market's respect. In fact, I don't think he cares. Thus, it's reasonably likely that we'll need to see EVERYTHING line up. Deflation is in the bag. If they drop bonds, you can buy them. Mark

[beta]

Mark, thanks for your input. I am looking at several others besides vix. Not "feeling" anything in terms of fear. Also, just look at volume. Where is the washout? Now, I do show more bearish posts and that is a start but the real fear IMHO is not there.

Mark, just saw INTC print, maybe we will see some real fear tommorrow. LOL

Here's a hint on board "sentiment": I'd guess its fair to say that for most of today, most traders on this board were SCARED CHICKEN-$$IT !

How many posters did you see except for me, NAV, endisnear & Denleo post in real-time today that they were buying this fear? Zippo.

Believe me, Ive been buying the FEAR bottoms since '03 on the bull side (just check my posts). This is what FEAR feels like, and I like being in the minority on these extreme-price/fear trades. Not saying it cant go lower; but think we're getting close to some kind of complex bottom. (And if not, da Bull is over.)

Edited by beta, 15 January 2008 - 06:02 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, objectively, we have to accept hat the Bull is over. It might reverse of course, but by most measures we have to accept that we are in a "bear market condition". That also doesn't preclude hellish rallies, either. And remember, we were in a Bear Market condition at the 2003 lows. I smell (and feel) the fear too, but the thing I'm suddenly concerned about is the fact that the VIX didn't climb. (I see now what you're talking about skymaster). That's a prescription for the gamers to cream the market after buying puts, and get the double wammy of delta and premium expansion. They don't have to pay much for time value. The flip side, of course, is that they can reverse it too if IV rises enough. We'll worry about that when we come to it. Mark

[IndexTrader]

Mark, thanks for your input. I am looking at several others besides vix. Not "feeling" anything in terms of fear. Also, just look at volume. Where is the washout? Now, I do show more bearish posts and that is a start but the real fear IMHO is not there.

Mark, just saw INTC print, maybe we will see some real fear tommorrow. LOL

Here's a hint on board "sentiment": I'd guess its fair to say that for most of today, most traders on this board were SCARED CHICKEN-$$IT !

How many posters did you see except for me, NAV, endisnear & Denleo post in real-time today that they were buying this fear? Zippo.

Believe me, Ive been buying the FEAR bottoms since '03 on the bull side (just check my posts). This is what FEAR feels like, and I like being in the minority on these extreme-price/fear trades. Not saying it cant go lower; but think we're getting close to some kind of complex bottom. (And if not, da Bull is over.)

Sometime when you have the time, and if the archives still permit (from the old board), you might go back and take a look at the initial rally off the bottom in 2003. There were some mighty smart posters, some of them gurus, who assurred us that there were too many bulls. Chart after chart proved that a decline was immediately ahead. Needless to say, it was wrong.

This market is giving every indication that it is a bear market, as I posted back in December. It will definitely have rallies. But this is not going to give you the same juice as the bull market did.

IT