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David Bensimon - PolarPacific.com


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#21 KnowNuttin2

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 01:47 PM

Didn't Paul Volker,former fed cheif, say NO MORE BUBBLES....3600 SPX by 2012 in your dreams. At the top in 2000 books were written about DOW 36000. Classic rubbish for the Sheeple!



Bensimon gave his prediction for 3600 back in 2003 or earlier. To catagorize the man as a rubbish producer is total bs. He has probably the strongest track record out there.





I'm confused! At the link you have in your first post above, you show his December 2003 prediction.

Since that prediction, the Dow has never spent a single moment lower.
Yet his prediction was for the Dow to fall 40% over the next year.

OUCH. That short would have hurt.

Posted Image

What am I missing?

Here is the 3600 prediction, with a big crash in the middle, at the same link above.

http://mywebpages.co...vidBensiman.bmp

Scott


Thanks Scott...But Russ is a true believer and we'll never turn him to a critical mindset. He believes in testimonals, Scientology and MEN WITH NO HATS (that's the group from downunder song). Anyway, my best to you Russ,aka Bensimon. I'm sure you never made a penny in this business from trading. Those who can't.. forecast for MONEY! WaveT that's you TOOOOO.

#22 dasein

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 04:53 PM

Bensimon used to be on the longwavecycles board, werhe his forecasts could be read for free along with Clif Droke now on the prudent bear board, I believe, and the chief stopped by there as well. I think there were a lot of extremely smart and sincere people there, including bensimon, who is not Russ. Like most forecasters they arent always right and often run hot and cold. and I think you should keep in mind that traders and analysts are different - at times it seems there is inherently needed in the trader that a very good analyst would by nature lack....but really, they are two distinct disciplines, and should not be trashed against one another. that said, I doubt he has a lock on the future, because I dont believe anyone does - but it is probably wise to file away his longterm thoughts and see if they add to the structure of your interpretation as things pan out. Also, a lot of institutions pay a lot of maney to many many advisors, just because they are looking for an edge - i doubt very much that they dont pay a wole bunch of other guys the same, despite they are saying the opposite of Bensimon. klh
best,
klh

#23 KnowNuttin2

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 05:09 PM

Bensimon used to be on the longwavecycles board, werhe his forecasts could be read for free along with Clif Droke now on the prudent bear board, I believe, and the chief stopped by there as well.

I think there were a lot of extremely smart and sincere people there, including bensimon, who is not Russ. Like most forecasters they arent always right and often run hot and cold. and I think you should keep in mind that traders and analysts are different - at times it seems there is inherently needed in the trader that a very good analyst would by nature lack....but really, they are two distinct disciplines, and should not be trashed against one another.

that said, I doubt he has a lock on the future, because I dont believe anyone does - but it is probably wise to file away his longterm thoughts and see if they add to the structure of your interpretation as things pan out.

Also, a lot of institutions pay a lot of maney to many many advisors, just because they are looking for an edge - i doubt very much that they dont pay a wole bunch of other guys the same, despite they are saying the opposite of Bensimon.

klh


Thanks Dasein....I know he's not bensimon...just tryin to rankle him a bit c'ause he thought B was the guru and called this big down move. just a reality check for him. Thanks for your view. best NK2.

#24 Russ

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 06:43 PM

Didn't Paul Volker,former fed cheif, say NO MORE BUBBLES....3600 SPX by 2012 in your dreams. At the top in 2000 books were written about DOW 36000. Classic rubbish for the Sheeple!



Bensimon gave his prediction for 3600 back in 2003 or earlier. To catagorize the man as a rubbish producer is total bs. He has probably the strongest track record out there.



I'm confused! At the link you have in your first post above, you show his December 2003 prediction.

Since that prediction, the Dow has never spent a single moment lower.
Yet his prediction was for the Dow to fall 40% over the next year.

OUCH. That short would have hurt.

Posted Image

What am I missing?

Here is the 3600 prediction, with a big crash in the middle, at the same link above.

http://mywebpages.co...vidBensiman.bmp

Scott



I have already posted information on that forecast back in 2003 for a bigger low, it was a bad call that he is not acknowledging on his website, but his calls last year appear to be very good. If there is anyone out there or on this board that did better I would like to see it. Ita very easy for the peanut gallery with a 50/50 record on this board to sit on the sidelines and spit at those that are out there actually performing.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#25 KnowNuttin2

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 07:23 PM

Didn't Paul Volker,former fed cheif, say NO MORE BUBBLES....3600 SPX by 2012 in your dreams. At the top in 2000 books were written about DOW 36000. Classic rubbish for the Sheeple!



Bensimon gave his prediction for 3600 back in 2003 or earlier. To catagorize the man as a rubbish producer is total bs. He has probably the strongest track record out there.



I'm confused! At the link you have in your first post above, you show his December 2003 prediction.

Since that prediction, the Dow has never spent a single moment lower.
Yet his prediction was for the Dow to fall 40% over the next year.

OUCH. That short would have hurt.

Posted Image

What am I missing?

Here is the 3600 prediction, with a big crash in the middle, at the same link above.

http://mywebpages.co...vidBensiman.bmp

Scott



I have already posted information on that forecast back in 2003 for a bigger low, it was a bad call that he is not acknowledging on his website, but his calls last year appear to be very good. If there is anyone out there or on this board that did better I would like to see it. Ita very easy for the peanut gallery with a 50/50 record on this board to sit on the sidelines and spit at those that are out there actually performing.



YOU JUST DON'T GET IT!! The people on this board are just terrific, whether they're right or wrong they are humble honest decent ewavers and techs... and put out thought provoking T/A. they don't charge $300 for ten minutes or a issue. We all share and gain and are mostly respectable to others...sometimes I'am NOT.

#26 bulworth

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 09:08 PM

Bensimon is the best I have seen. He has consistently had the big picture right on the All Ordinaries, the Nikkei, and the SPX for years.
Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination are omnipotent.

#27 Russ

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 09:14 PM

YOU JUST DON'T GET IT!! The people on this board are just terrific, whether they're right or wrong they are humble honest decent ewavers and techs... and put out thought provoking T/A. they don't charge $300 for ten minutes or a issue. We all share and gain and are mostly respectable to others...sometimes I'am NOT.


On any given day there are a collection of bulls and bears on this board, which one or ones are you going to listen too? Trading by watching and shifting between different opinions is uncertain and dangerous.

A person can either have a system that they understand and has proven to have a good track record or they can pay someone who they think is worth following.

Attempting to build wealth by gleaning advice from a public forum seems to be a pretty uncertain way to do it.

Edited by Russ, 27 January 2008 - 09:16 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#28 Russ

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 09:25 PM

Bensimon is the best I have seen. He has consistently had the big picture right on the All Ordinaries, the Nikkei, and the SPX for years.



I assume you have been subscribing to his service. Your opinion is more validation to the large number of professionals out there that have given him great praise. It is rare to see someone call the swings as accurately as he has been doing, but what do I know, I have only been doing this for a couple of decades.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#29 kc135a

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 09:28 PM

Teaparty, Bensimon said the same thing, after the big run up from 2002 what we saw was just a test of support of that wave, in fact he predicted the recent level virtually exactly last Oct.

Another thing mentioned was the importance of the 20 year cycle which 2002 came on but that is a half cycle of the 40 year cycle...1942,1962 1982, 2002, 2022. There is also an 80 year war cycle, revolutionary war of the USA, Civil War, WWII, and 2022 will be the next one....hope he's wrong abou that one. I notice on the old chart of his that can be seen on my link above he was looking for the final low to come in 2004 though so nobody is perfect.

Martin Armstrong pi model called that low perfectly and so Armstrong's model is at odds with his forecast as Armstrong would be looking for the next low in mid 2011....if you are reading this cheif you can start puking now. :) The final high in this bull market would be in 2032 based on Armstrong's model and then after that we could expect more serious war as happened ten years after 1929. All this is more academic obviously but interesting.


I disagree with the 40 year cycle bottom year. The next one is due October 2014 and a quick trip back in history to at least 1734 will verify that cycle. However, his chart for 2009 to 2010 is feasible though though those years would be the final pre 2014 high. My long term cycle work indicates September 2010 is the latest possible date for a high preceding a crash into the fall of 2014. FWIW, April 2009 is the earliest date for a top with September 2009 being the most like date for a final top.

KC

#30 Russ

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Posted 27 January 2008 - 09:38 PM

Teaparty, Bensimon said the same thing, after the big run up from 2002 what we saw was just a test of support of that wave, in fact he predicted the recent level virtually exactly last Oct.

Another thing mentioned was the importance of the 20 year cycle which 2002 came on but that is a half cycle of the 40 year cycle...1942,1962 1982, 2002, 2022. There is also an 80 year war cycle, revolutionary war of the USA, Civil War, WWII, and 2022 will be the next one....hope he's wrong abou that one. I notice on the old chart of his that can be seen on my link above he was looking for the final low to come in 2004 though so nobody is perfect.

Martin Armstrong pi model called that low perfectly and so Armstrong's model is at odds with his forecast as Armstrong would be looking for the next low in mid 2011....if you are reading this cheif you can start puking now. :) The final high in this bull market would be in 2032 based on Armstrong's model and then after that we could expect more serious war as happened ten years after 1929. All this is more academic obviously but interesting.


I disagree with the 40 year cycle bottom year. The next one is due October 2014 and a quick trip back in history to at least 1734 will verify that cycle. However, his chart for 2009 to 2010 is feasible though though those years would be the final pre 2014 high. My long term cycle work indicates September 2010 is the latest possible date for a high preceding a crash into the fall of 2014. FWIW, April 2009 is the earliest date for a top with September 2009 being the most like date for a final top.

KC


So you say 2014 is a low and Bensimon says its going to be a low....polar opposites. :wacko: This is a crazy business.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/