31 replies to this topic

[KnowNuttin2]

On Oct 23, I called a generational top on AAPL around 190....



AAPL hit 117 two days ago...

I believe AAPL will be $7 in the next 9-12 months

A-ha....if aapl 7 then we have a 1974 1 PE for the mkt.

I'm a buyer of aapl around $80.

Read BARRONS page 44!!

[A-ha]

On Oct 23, I called a generational top on AAPL around 190....



AAPL hit 117 two days ago...

I believe AAPL will be $7 in the next 9-12 months

Will it be making this move while you're long the ES???

Seriously, you won't see 7 in your lifetime, let alone the next 9-12 months. Fortunately for you if you are in fact short, it doesn't need to go down that far to make a great deal of money.

IT

No it will not get there while I am long ES... It will happen when I let the market drop ...
AAPL rallied from 10 to 200 in 3 years... when the conditions truly change, it will of course drop to 7...

you folks can not conceive of one thing: Price is relative (valuations change based on underlying conditions) And this change is not linear !

On Oct 23, I called a generational top on AAPL around 190....



AAPL hit 117 two days ago...

I believe AAPL will be $7 in the next 9-12 months

A-ha....if aapl 7 then we have a 1974 1 PE for the mkt.

I'm a buyer of aapl around $80.

Read BARRONS page 44!!

PE assumptions based on the current conditions are meanless.... Conditions will change ...

Atilla,

Thanks for sharing your outlook. Do you see any others that might see similar declines?

Thanks in advance,

UBW

AMZN

Edited by A-ha, 10 February 2008 - 11:29 AM.

[ogm]

No it will not get there while I am long ES... It will happen when I let the market drop ...
AAPL rallied from 10 to 200 in 3 years... when the conditions truly change, it will of course drop to 7...

you folks can not conceive of one thing: Price is relative (valuations change based on underlying conditions) And this change is not linear !


PE assumptions based on the current conditions are meanless.... Conditions will change ...

Lol. You're so full of it You're either drunk, or you need to take some basic classes on why the stocks actually have price attached to them.

Beleive it or not some stocks aren't just lottery tickets that go up and down and price on a whim.

Some of them are actually claims on real assets and the ability to generate future assets.

If AAPL has 21 dollars in CASH, it means just that. Thats why it won't be trading at 7 unless the company starts generating massive losses.

Forget your hogwash about coming end of the world depression. Not gonna happen. Recessions are dime a dozen. Some are more severe then others some are less. But they all end in the same way.. expansion.

Economic cycle... Breath in ... breath out. Sun.. Moon. Summer... Winter ... Rinse, repeat.

Expansion is the natural state of the economy. Due to global demographics and monetary system. Recessions are not natural state.

You have to buy claims on real assets when those claims are trading at a discount. And sell them when they are trading for a premium.

Why is it exactly you think the company will start generating massive losses ?

Edited by ogm, 10 February 2008 - 02:10 PM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...ktick=1.fog.gif



No way huh?

[A-ha]

Lol. You're so full of it You're either drunk, or you need to take some basic classes on why the stocks actually have price attached to them.

No, steve jobs will put the cash in a strongbox today and shut down the operations before stagflation becomes globally epidemic

if you really that retard to base your future projections on company's current cash and fundamentals, you dont even have to take economics 101...

Edited by A-ha, 10 February 2008 - 02:29 PM.

[IndexTrader]

No way huh?

Are you comparing YHOO in 2000 to AAPL now Semi???

I bought AAPL back in 2003 for around 13 at the time. It's split since then. I think the adjusted price I paid was maybe 6.50. The reason I bought it was because at the time they had about $4-$5 in cash per share (split adjusted). Oh, and there were some murmurings about the IPOD. So yeah, there is always a way something can happen. But it's not always the way to bet, because aside from the fact that almost anything "could" happen, most things are "unlikely" to happen.

Even in 2003, before IPOD, IPHONE, etc the stock did NOT trade under cash per share. Not many stocks do that, and if they do, they are the doggiest of the dogs.

So my statement stands...you won't see 7 in any of your lifetimes on AAPL. Can it decline? Absolutely. But not to 7.

IT

EDIT: By the way, I didn't hold the stock, I traded it, for an embassassingly low profit.

Edited by IndexTrader, 10 February 2008 - 02:36 PM.

[ogm]

Lol. You're so full of it You're either drunk, or you need to take some basic classes on why the stocks actually have price attached to them.

No, steve jobs will put the cash in a strongbox today and shut down the operations before stagflation becomes globally epidemic

if you really that retard to base your future projections on company's current cash and fundamentals, you dont even have to take economics 101...

But YOU know exactly what the economy is going to do, what premiums on stocks will be ( in case of APPL 70% discount to cash in 18 month).

And what makes YOU so smart ? Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night ?

Or you read permabear.com or some other a dime a dozen crap website full of depression predictions ?

[A-ha]

And what makes YOU so smart ?

I was born smart... My track record speaks for itself. Aside from many IT bottoms/Tops I called to the day, I was the only one in wall street who called this bear move in early 2007. Now people look at the charts and identifies the crash of Feb 27 as the left shoulder...

[Darris]

Until the trading statements are shown and verified, this is all just Traders-Talk. My talk included.

[KnowNuttin2]

And what makes YOU so smart ?

I was born smart... My track record speaks for itself. Aside from many IT bottoms/Tops I called to the day, I was the only one in wall street who called this bear move in early 2007. Now people look at the charts and identifies the crash of Feb 27 as the left shoulder...

A-Ha....what's the prob. of appl @ 7. Let's go 100,000 short and make millions.....I'll still buy around 80. Be sure to read barrons p44....very bearish fund mgr. for the next 3 years.....and a cogent argument too. Hope you're not big hat and no cattle....I've had my best Jan and Feb in 25 years of trading. Best, MONTY and CHE.