38 replies to this topic

[TMN]

does anyone (with the exception of milbank) realise that the smooth running of some very very basic services in the US is currently under threat?

[ogm]

does anyone (with the exception of milbank) realise that the smooth running of some very very basic services in the US is currently under threat?

No idea what you're talking about.

But there are still 300+ mil people in US and most of them are employed. The economy is going to muddle through. Yes, there may not be any spectacular growth, but there woin't be a 1929 depression that everyone expects either. It will just simply chugg along and grow with the population. Growth in population will create demand for goods and services and in turn will generate jobs.

Some corporations will prosper, some will fail. Some new industries will emerge, some old ones will errode into oblivion.

Sun will be rising in the morning and setting in the evening.

Edited by ogm, 19 February 2008 - 12:06 PM.

[milbank]

does anyone (with the exception of milbank) realise that the smooth running of some very very basic services in the US is currently under threat?

No idea what you're talking about.

But there are still 300+ mil people in US and most of them are employed. The economy is going to muddle through. Yes, there may not be any spectacular growth, but there woin't be a 1929 depression that everyone expects either. It will just simply chugg along and grow with the population. Growth in population will create demand for goods and services and in turn will generate jobs.

Some corporations will prosper, some will fail. Some new industries will emerge, some old ones will errode into oblivion.

Sun will be rising in the morning and setting in the evening.

I'm not exactly sure what maxter267 was saying either. Whether he was serious or being sarcastic. It's tough on the internet to know but, I assume sarcastic as I'm not "the only one" on anything and I certainly didn't say anything about "basic services" although state and municipal budgets are being threatened. I will say this, I don't see a 1929 crash nor do I see a 1930's style depression. I do see a lot more economic pain for this country, especially the middle class, or what will be left of it, in the coming years. I do expect the markets will feel more pain as well before it "U"s out. I'm wondering if it doesn't start recovering towards the end of the year only to make another drop in2010-2011. I expect to have put the long term monies back in by then. I'm not concerned about that yet. I will get the long term stuff out of the way again if I have to.

Edited by milbank, 19 February 2008 - 12:16 PM.

[TMN]

..and ogm will be waking up before sunrise to milk the cow

[TMN]

i was referring to the muni mkt

[milbank]

..and ogm will be waking up before sunrise to milk the cow

He's been "milking the cow" pretty well for months now.

[milbank]

i was referring to the muni mkt

Yeah, I agree with that then. I do think it's going to be harder for municipalities to fund and service with ever shrinking budgets without a doubt.

[arbman]

You don't need much to read this market, let me tell you some propriate analysis with numbers. SPX is trading with 11 wk intermediate term dominant cycle and it has been about 19 trading days (tdays) since the low in January. The previous two samples started to come down after the 22 tdays making the samples slightly left translated tops. Each cycle produced roughly 100 SPX points momentum thrusts. The market must be days away from an important high of the 10 wk cycle and the smaller cycle lows are due next week. Not only the market must not decline below the recent lows in Feb, but also blast higher one more time to save itself from a doomed faith due for the next 10 wk cycle low around late March or early April. Now more quantitatively, the centerline moving average (54 trading days) which you can say the momentum of the 10 wk cycle is actually still declining quite rapidly for SPX such that the 10 wk cycle magnitude of 100 points did not manage to turn it or stabilize it in my measurements. This is very negative for the intermediate term. In conclusion, the central banks around the globe understand the analytical aspect of this damage or trend and they should do every bullish spin possible over this week to make sure the indices do not make another lower low at the 5 wk cycle low from here since it will guarantee a plunge into the 10 wk cycle with or without a bounce later in Feb. For the very short term, the dominant 2.5 wk cycle is showing somewhat bullish behaviour by still showing resilience, but the larger 5wk cycle topped out too early in late Jan. I looked at the stocks showing somewhat strong 10 wk cyclical behaviour and out of 600 stocks and ETFs following this IT cycle, only 68 of them had their half span moving averages (27 tdays) turned up. This is plain dismal and horrible for the bullish case, you can not possibly be IT bullish with half of the IT cycle gone and most of the issues are still in downtrend even in the smaller time frames. This market will be in a range bound at best, but most likely at the cusp of a significant decline within 2-3 wks... Good luck.

[milbank]

Thanks for the analysis arbman.

[TMN]

..and ogm will be waking up before sunrise to milk the cow

He's been "milking the cow" pretty well for months now.

i hope he did, it's best to pay with $ for the cow!