37 replies to this topic

[U.F.O.]

LJ. I hear ya. What you need to do #1 is analyze why "most of my non-discretionary cash has already been burned on this durn market." Playing the wrong side of the market kills. Being perma "anything" kills. You have to float like a cork and ride the tide.

U.F.O.

[LongJohn]

I play both sides of it......and for the next few sessions I'm on the short side. I know your thread started with why it "can't" go down below that "magic" line, but things do change. I would not be surprised to see a big leg down that drops below the line. I'm doing my best to be ready when it happens. I definitely depend on the many great posters (like you) on this site to help me "see" what's up with the markets.

[U.F.O.]

LongJohn, I like your style and thanks. I also have a few relatives in Shreveport and love your town. Best to you and have a great weekend! U.F.O.

[Kimston]

I've been at this game for 30 years.... hardly road kill. In fact, I'm having my best year ever after successfully shorting gold and the Aussie dollar near the top and buying US dollar over the last few months. I never make any market forecasts with absolute certitude. But after "studying hard" for many years, I believe the odds are extremely high that we are in a secular downtrend in the stock market. That's why I chose my words carefully and said "almost certainly". For your edification, the On-line Dictionary defines "Almost" as follows: "Slightly short of; not quite; nearly."

By the way, I'm holding some Dec 2009 DJX puts (until we get a crash, which I think is a very high probability before these expire) from much higher levels and they're doing quite well.

I certainly wish you the best of luck....almost.

Kimston

People walk into casinos every day of the week and bet against the house. The house, of course, being the casino. For the house, it's an odds game. The games are tilted to give the casinos the advantage. By studying hard (i.e. card counting) you can increase your chances to virtually even...maybe even a touch better. Odds playing the stock market are not dissimilar. To play odds in investments one has to study the historical tape. The house does in casinos. If a price event only happens once in 23 years, what are my odds of it re-occurring within a short/intermediate timeframe? Zero, or close. So....what are we to make of the people who espouse "elevator down" or "crash alert" or $SPX to $800.00? In investments (or casinos) we call them roadkill. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

[U.F.O.]

I'm glad you're "almost" certain. If I ever need edification I'll talk to my wife. I'm also glad you're doing well with your trades. My comment to you was to hopefully teach that your spitting out loopy certitudes was an unattractive trait. Best. U.F.O.

Edited by U.F.O., 16 August 2008 - 10:26 PM.

[tradesurfer]

the funny thing is, (no disprespect meant) is that when i read the title of your post i realized there is a decent chance of the exact opposite happening this week, maybe even a market crash... (and plus, funny how I have not seen any 'crash posts' at all last week on tt.... ) if the market is going to crash, it will do so when no one is predicting one

[Trend-Shifter]

Ever since the IRA & 401K were created there has been a fairly steady flow into the key indices such as the S&P 500. There is your floor. All we have left is traders and events making the short term noise. Now we get to add soveign wealth funds to the equation. If this housing crisis continues to plays out negatively where more & more people are tapping out their 401K's & IRA's, that could create the first shift in the "flow of funds".

[thespookyone]

UFO- You said: "Plain and simple. IF the stock market were to fail miserably for 10 or 15 years what would happen to our pension funds, 401k's, society in general? " If you had a pension fund based in the SPX in 2000 you either got even at he HIGHS last fall, or you are even now-depends on your entry. I'd consider that pretty miserable. Of course it goes without saying that most Naz investments held since that high in 2000 are at this moment at about 1/2 their value-care to try and retire on those returns? Miserable enough for me-I'd say the underlying put you site-is not there.

[Kimston]

Yes, this is what prompted by initial post in this thread. Loopy statements of certitude like "Why The Market Can't Truly Collapse." are the very sort of thing you tend to see before a collapse. I mean, it doesn't say "Why there is a high probability the market can't collapse." or "Why there is almost no chance of a market collapse". The irony is the poster has the audacity to then challenge my comments with "There is very little involving markets that is almost certain."

Kimston

the funny thing is, (no disprespect meant) is that when i read the title of your post i realized there is a decent chance of the exact opposite happening this week, maybe even a market crash... (and plus, funny how I have not seen any 'crash posts' at all last week on tt.... ) if the market is going to crash, it will do so when no one is predicting one

[selecto]

A permanently high plateau. Sweet.