Jump to content



Photo

HUI Hurst Cycles/Gann


  • Please log in to reply
34 replies to this topic

#21 denmo83

denmo83

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 289 posts

Posted 17 July 2009 - 12:24 PM

Denmo,

Each market asset (oil, gold, stocks, bonds) runs on its own cycles and phasings. Gold and silver for example have made large cycle lows at different times, but the dominant 56 week cycle will tend to run in sync across the HUI, gold and silver. It is the larger cycles for these metals that are out of phase. For example gold will make its 9 year low late this year well before silver. Silver is due to make 9 and 18 year cycle lows late 2010 or early 2011.

Oil and energy in general work on different cycles altogether from other markets. So at times oil may seem to be moving together with equities for example, and at other times oil may seem to work against stocks. But nothing changes in terms of their cycles. Oil, gold, equities continue to move within respective cycles.

Hope that helps.

BTW, it is very likely that the HUI and gold have made a 14 week low here this week. They have now entered the last 14 week cycle of the current 56 week cycle I track. So sometime this fall we should see 14 and 56 week cycle lows that also will mark the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycle lows.

cheers,

john


Thanks John,

Hope you don't mind me picking you brain. Still holding my full position on oils from last Friday. Been a great week and I appreciate you taki9ng your time answering questions.

---Dennis

#22 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 05 August 2009 - 03:02 PM

Just got back from camping/cottaging/ etc. I've put on a GLD short here today to hedge my gold coins. Gold is in its 42nd week off the last 56 week cycle low last fall. It has also entered its last 14 week cycle here (in the current 56 week cycle) or will shortly. This next 14 week cycle should be a bearish and I'm looking for gold to make a 56 week cycle low in November/December. Whether this is a 4.5 and 9 year low (or did it arrive late last year?) is still in question. I will post more cycle analysis on gold when I have a chance. Busy, busy. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 05 August 2009 - 03:07 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#23 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 09 September 2009 - 11:10 AM

We are late in the 56 week cycle and likely the 14 week cycle is topping soon if not this week. One way or another, there is no way I can buy into this. Technically, price is outside the EMA envelope (blue), above the 3 week offset EMA, and everyone is talking about gold. A better buy is coming or I will eat my hat. :purebs: HUI_14_week_cycles_Sept_9_2009.png cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#24 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 18 September 2009 - 12:33 PM

It looks to me like AEM, the high beta boy of PMs is about done. I don't discount some more thrashing around next week, but once price tucks back inside that envelope, it will revert to the mean. I am long some Dec. 60 puts. When price takes out $68 on a closing basis, first target is $64 The more difficult question is what will I do later this fall regarding PMs investments. A good sharp correction will have me buying for long term holds. If the correction is weak, then I will be simply trading. We'll see when we get there. cheers, john AEM_Cycles_Sept_209.png

Edited by SilentOne, 18 September 2009 - 12:36 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#25 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 23 September 2009 - 12:04 PM

Cycles still suggest there should be a good correction into a 56 week cycle low (Oct. - Nov.?) for gold stocks and gold. I've centered the 56 week cycle off the Aug. 2007 low. Note how the 56 week cycle should have bottomed in Sept. last year? But instead the sector continued to plunge for another several weeks to the ultimate low. Several things confirm that gold made its 9 year low last fall as did the miners. There has been a good price channel formed here and price is testing the top of that channel. Also note the Gann level earmarked at HUI 467. You can be a raving bull once the HUI manages to break above that level. For now one has to expect it to be resistance, while HUI 323 should be future support. One thing to watch is the Euro. If the Euro somehow manages to break above 1.50 in the near term, that would probably ignite an explosion in prices. cheers, john HUI_14_week_cycles_Sept_23_2009.png

Edited by SilentOne, 23 September 2009 - 12:04 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#26 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 24 September 2009 - 09:57 AM

It looks to me like AEM, the high beta boy of PMs is about done. I don't discount some more thrashing around next week, but once price tucks back inside that envelope, it will revert to the mean. I am long some Dec. 60 puts. When price takes out $68 on a closing basis, first target is $64


Sold the AEM puts here as the HUI trades near 400 and AEM $64. Will look to reload.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 24 September 2009 - 09:58 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#27 denmo83

denmo83

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 289 posts

Posted 24 September 2009 - 10:18 AM

It looks to me like AEM, the high beta boy of PMs is about done. I don't discount some more thrashing around next week, but once price tucks back inside that envelope, it will revert to the mean. I am long some Dec. 60 puts. When price takes out $68 on a closing basis, first target is $64


Sold the AEM puts here as the HUI trades near 400 and AEM $64. Will look to reload.

cheers,

john


Nice John!!!

#28 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 13 October 2009 - 01:30 PM

The HUI is rallying into a high just where I expected a 56 week cycle low. Nothing I can do with this thing. If a high does form in this timeframe, from a cycles point of view it can be quite bearish. I'll stop posting on the HUI for a while as I am offering no value on gold miners TA, or anything else for that matter right now (SPX, USD, CAD, etc.). :lol: The next opportunity for a significant low is the next 14 week cycle low. Beyond that you got me. cheers, john HUI_14_and_56_week_cycles_Oct_12_2009.png
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#29 mss

mss

    I'M WATCHING

  • TT Sponsor
  • 6,176 posts

Posted 13 October 2009 - 03:28 PM

:) John, hang in there we all like your work. At times there are market forces that just do not make sense, but we have to keep trying. Been at this stuff 50+ years and have seen all sorts of strange things and there will be more if I keep dealing with the market. Its fun to try to understand why things change vibes, cycles, angles and TL when they should do something else. It is like being married 51 years--every day is different and a challenge. :wub: :wub: :wub: Best to you, Scott
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#30 inamosa

inamosa

    Patterns-based Trader and Investor in ETFs and Futures

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,638 posts

Posted 13 October 2009 - 06:59 PM

I agree with Scott Please keep sharing your thoughts, John
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months